What about an eruption on Kilauea’s SW Rift Zone?
The Southwest Rift Zone (SWRZ) of Kilauea is often overlooked as a source of eruptions, because the volcano’s East Rift Zone is so much more active. The SWRZ, however, is far from dead. It has had recorded eruptions in 1823, 1868, 1919-1920, 1971, and 1974. These eruptions occurred before the advent of GPS, so most of the information we have on pre-eruptive sequences and conduit geometry comes from seismology.
To get an estimate of the pathways that magma takes in the Southwest Rift Zone, we can look at the location of shallow earthquakes recorded by HVO since 1959. Those earthquakes outline a structure that emerges from the south part of Kilauea Caldera, trending due south toward the Koa‘e Fault Zone. The earthquakes then trace a structure that trends southwest along the Koa‘e Fault Zone to a region about halfway to the coast. Interestingly, the structure that is outlined by shallow earthquakes is offset to the south by 2 to 2.5 miles from the line of eruptive vents at the surface of the Southwest Rift Zone.
By looking at the earthquakes that occurred prior to eruptions in 1971 and 1974, we may be able to gain clues into what to expect before the next SWRZ eruption. Prior to the September 1971 eruption, several swarms occurred months ahead of time, especially in the summit caldera and in the area to the south. Seismicity also extended sparsely to Mauna Iki and, at times, south to the coast. This was interpreted as a slow magma intrusion into the SWRZ.
The summit was highly inflated, and a short-lived summit eruption occurred just a month before the 1971 SWRZ eruption. When the 1971 SWRZ eruption finally started, earthquakes were shifted west of the pre-eruption earthquakes in locations between surface fissures. The earthquakes migrated downrift at about 0.3 miles per hour. The pattern of seismicity and summit tilt suggests that the 1971 eruption was actually fed from the shallow part of the summit reservoir to the west of the typical SWRZ earthquake source area.
In contrast, the 1974 eruption follows the structure most obviously outlined by historical seismicity. About seven days before the eruption, a vigorous earthquake swarm—associated with deflationary tilt and, very likely, a small intrusion into one or both rift zones — occurred in the Upper SWRZ and Upper East Rift Zone. Beginning on Dec. 31, another swarm began at the eruption site south of the summit caldera at about 1.6 miles in depth.
Tremor soon replaced discrete earthquakes, and about nine hours after the swarm began, an eruption occurred on the uppermost SWRZ. Seismicity continued downrift, following a propagating dike, for approximately 9 miles at a rate of about 0.8 miles per hour to the Kamakai‘a Hills. No extrusion of lava was recorded away from the initial eruption site, though seismicity continued downrift of the dike terminus for weeks after the eruption.
Several earthquake swarms have been recorded on the SWRZ since 1974. In 2006, inflation associated with an increase in shallow seismicity in the SWRZ was detected using GPS and satellite data. Even over the past month, there has been a small increase in the number of earthquake to the south of the summit caldera (http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/seismic/volcweb/earthquakes/index.php).
In the future, when eruptive activity returns to the SWRZ, scientists will look to past eruptions to give them clues to look for. Since the last SWRZ eruption in 1974, the seismic network has improved dramatically, and many new technologies, such as GPS and InSAR, have become available. That leaves HVO with many tools to forecast and monitor any future eruption in ways not previously possible. Out of those observations will come a better understanding of the mechanics of the SWRZ.
Kilauea activity update
A lava lake within the Halema‘uma‘u Overlook vent produced nighttime glow that was visible from the Jaggar Museum overlook and via HVO’s webcam during the past week. The lake level fluctuated in response to a summit deflation-inflation cycle, ranging between about 80 to 200 feet below the floor of Halema‘uma‘u.
On Kilauea’s east rift zone, breakouts from the Peace Day tube remain active above and at the base of the pali and on the coastal plain, and small ocean entries are active on both sides of the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park boundary. In addition, the Kahauale‘a flow, fed directly from a spatter cone on the northeastern edge of Pu‘u ‘O‘o’s crater floor, continues to advance slowly toward the northeast across a plain of 1980s-era ‘a‘a flows.
Volcano Watch (http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/volcanowatch/) is a weekly article and activity update written by scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey`s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.
Rules for posting comments
Comments posted below are from readers. In no way do they represent the view of Oahu Publishing Inc. or this newspaper. This is a public forum.
Comments may be monitored for inappropriate content but the newspaper is under no obligation to do so. Comment posters are solely responsible under the Communications Decency Act for comments posted on this Web site. Oahu Publishing Inc. is not liable for messages from third parties.
IP and email addresses of persons who post are not treated as confidential records and will be disclosed in response to valid legal process.
Do not post:
- Potentially libelous statements or damaging innuendo.
- Obscene, explicit, or racist language.
- Copyrighted materials of any sort without the express permission of the copyright holder.
- Personal attacks, insults or threats.
- The use of another person's real name to disguise your identity.
- Comments unrelated to the story.
If you believe that a commenter has not followed these guidelines, please click the FLAG icon below the comment.