Santorum’s near victory in Iowa

By JASON TOLBERT

Stephens Media

Last week I incorrectly predicted that Ron Paul would win the Iowa Caucus on Jan. 3. When the results came in, I was proven wrong. I also argued that the Iowa Caucus would not matter, but it remains to be seen whether this prediction holds true.

Paul did not win, but he did post a strong third-place showing, separating himself from the also-rans in the field. He did this primarily by offering a unique libertarian message that appealed to independents and to Iowa Republicans looking for something completely different.

The real story was the out-of-nowhere near miss by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who finished in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney.

Romney won the caucus by eight votes, or by 0.007 percent of the vote. It was close enough that this normally would warrant a recount, but since the statistical tie yields both candidates about the same amount of delegates in Iowa’s process, there is no need since the margin is more about bragging rights than anything of substance.

The near-win was a shock to nearly everyone. Only a week before the caucus, Santorum was in sixth place and single digits in most polls. But a combination of good timing and hard work catapulted him to the front of the pack on caucus day.

In one respect, Santorum just outworked his competitors in Iowa with old-fashioned retail politics. He was the first candidate to travel to all 99 Iowa counties. He put together a strong organization that had a presence at most precinct caucus locations.

If an Iowa Republican wanted to personally met Santorum, they likely did — perhaps several times. In addition, his social conservative populist message struck a cord in the same state that embraced Mike Huckabee four years ago.

But the timing of his surge was perhaps the biggest factor. Iowa Republicans mirror national Republicans in that about three out of four voters are looking for a nominee not named Mitt Romney.

While most will grudgingly admit that they expect Romney will be the eventual nominee and will support him to avoid four more years of President Obama, they are being dragged kicking and screaming toward this result.

The challenge for Republican voters has been finding an alternative to Romney and sticking with it. Santorum was fortunate that he was the latest popular alternative when caucus day arrived. Newt Gingrich was in this spot just weeks before the caucus but was hit with a barrage of negative ads primarily from groups supporting Romney. The ads succeeded in bringing Gingrich down but vaulted Santorum instead of Romney.

The next few weeks will decide if Iowa actually matters. The caucus clearly has given Santorum an opportunity he otherwise would not have had.

Most Americans who heard his speech Tuesday night or saw him on the news the next day were being introduced to him for the first time. He did well, and most agree that his speech — coming across genuine and striking a middle-class populist appeal — outshined Romney’s speech, which sounded plastic and flat.

In fact, during Santorum’s speech, Romney staffers went out and pulled down TelePrompTers set up for their candidate and had him put together a repeat of his stump speech.

Now on to New Hampshire, where Romney is expected to win handily, and then perhaps the real contest in South Carolina, which has the best track record in recent history of actually picking the nominee.

At this point, it still appears the nomination is Romney’s to lose because he has the most well-funded professional organization of any candidate, but Iowa is a yellow light to him that he has still not won over the party base.

Jason Tolbert is an accountant and conservative political blogger. His e-mail is jason@TolbertReport.com.