Iran’s military ascends

By BRIAN MURPHY

Associated Press

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — In the high desert along Iran’s Afghan border this week, soldiers from the powerful Revolutionary Guard practiced ambush tactics in subzero temperatures. Next month, the Guard’s warships are expected to resume battle drills near Gulf shipping lanes that carry much of the world’s oil.

Iran looks like a country preparing for war. But Tehran’s leaders are already using whatever leverage they can muster — including military displays and threats to choke off Gulf oil tanker traffic — to counter international pressure against the Iranian nuclear program.

A month after Iran embarrassed Washington with the capture of a CIA spy drone, the messages from the Islamic Republic couldn’t be clearer or more taunting: Tehran could turn the hook-shaped Strait of Hormuz into a dead end for tankers and hold the world economy hostage as payback for tighter U.S.-led sanctions.

Despite Iran’s escalating tough talk, there are contradictions and complications that cast doubt on the likelihood of drastic military action by Tehran that could trigger a Gulf conflict. It also shows how much Iran’s foreign policies are now shaped by its military commanders as the country views itself in a virtual state of war with Western powers and their allies.

It appears to be part of the kind of seesaw brinksmanship that has become an Iranian hallmark: Pushing to the edge with the West and then retreating after weighing the reactions.

“Iran sees pressures coming from all sides, and sanctions seem to be taking a major bite,” said Salman Shaikh, director of The Brookings Doha Center in Qatar. “Iran’s military is stepping up as the outside threats increase. This could well be the year that defines the direction of the Iran showdown.”

Iran has rolled out its troops and arsenals in an unprecedented display of military readiness. It wrapped up naval maneuvers earlier this month that included the first threats to block Gulf oil tankers. Ground forces also were sent on winter war games — against what a Tehran military spokesman called a “hypothetical enemy” — with U.S. forces just over the border in Afghanistan.

And the Revolutionary Guard — by far the strongest military force in Iran — said it will send its ships for more exercises in February near the Strait of Hormuz, which funnels down to a waterway no wider than 30 miles at the mouth of the Gulf. The U.S. and allies have told Iran that any attempts to blockade the strait would invite retaliation.

In response, Iran’s defense minister, Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, tried to shift the blame to the presence of Western forces in the region.

“The point is if anybody wants to jeopardize security of the Persian Gulf, then it will be jeopardized for all,” Vahidi said Sunday.

For many Iranians, sanctions that could target Iran’s oil exports are disturbingly reminiscent of the U.N.-imposed limits on Iraq’s oil industry in the 1990s.

Mahmoud Shekari, the owner of a bookshop in the wealthy Tehran neighborhood of Vanak, sniffed: “If we cannot sell our oil, why should others be able to export?”

Ninia Eskandari, a 20-year-old music student, boasted that the “Strait of Hormuz is ours. … We can block it if others want to damage us.”

For the moment, it’s unlikely to reach that potentially explosive point, analysts said.

Iran naval forces are significantly outgunned by Western flotillas, including the U.S. 5th Fleet based in Bahrain that can draw on aircraft carriers and other warships in the Indian Ocean and taking part in anti-piracy patrols off the Horn of Africa. Britain is also deploying one of its biggest destroyers, HMS Daring, to the Gulf.

“Iran knows it cannot realistically close off the strait,” said Paul Rogers, who follows international defense affairs at Bradford University in Britain. “It can, however, try to keep Western forces guessing and on edge. They are good at doing that.”

Iran also knows that blocking oil flow in the Gulf would bring serious self-inflicted wounds. Iran counts on oil for about 80 percent of its foreign currency earnings. Any disruptions would immediately start draining Iran’s treasury and leave its main oil customers, including China, India and South Korea, scrambling for new suppliers. As Iranian affairs analyst Afshin Molavi quipped: Closing the strait for Iran would be “akin to a man purposely blocking a coronary artery.”

Iran’s increased military focus is also, in some ways, a reply to threats of possible pre-emptive strikes against its nuclear sites.

In November, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said his country will not “take any option off the table,” a clear reference to military action.