The forecast track for Tropical Storm Ana shifted just south of the Big Island late Wednesday afternoon and wind speeds dropped slightly, but the system still has the potential to hit the southeast flank of the island with torrential rain and hurricane force winds early Saturday.
The forecast track for Tropical Storm Ana shifted just south of the Big Island late Wednesday afternoon and wind speeds dropped slightly, but the system still has the potential to hit the southeast flank of the island with torrential rain and hurricane force winds early Saturday.
The cyclone was forecast to build into a hurricane today, and could bring 85 mph winds and dump 20 inches of rain on southeast slopes. Surf to 30 feet could impact south shorelines, leaving coastal areas in lower Puna — where Tropical Storm Iselle already knocked homes off of foundations — at risk of wave damage and flooding.
The National Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for the island. A flood watch for the island will be in effect from noon Friday to 6 p.m. Sunday.
Big Island public schools will close Friday ahead of Ana, and Mayor Billy Kenoi was set to sign an emergency proclamation Thursday.
Residents should brace for power outages, downed trees, flash flooding, mudslides and wave damage at least on the order of Iselle when it struck Puna, said NWS forecaster Chris Brenchley.
“We need to be prepared for at least that level of impact anywhere across the state,” Brenchley said at a media briefing in Honolulu, but also cautioned that the forecast track remains uncertain and that Ana may not even hit the islands.
Ana was about 580 miles east-southeast of South Point on Wednesday evening, with 65 mph winds and traveling west at 9 mph. Tropical storm force winds extended 65 miles from the center. The cyclone was forecast to peak with 90 mph winds on Friday, when wind shear and drier air would begin to weaken the system.
Southeast shores should begin to see increased swell late Thursday, with the largest and most damaging waves Friday night.
The Hawaii County Fire Department, community emergency response team members and Civil Defense are going door to door from Kapoho to Kalapana warning residents, Civil Defense Administrator Darryl Oliveira said. The same measures will be taken in low-lying areas of Ka‘u and West Hawaii on Thursday.
The county will also do helicopter flights over low-lying areas to warn campers to leave. County beach parks and campgrounds will close on Friday, Oliveira said.
Tom Evans, meteorologist with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said terrain may have less of an impact on Ana when compared to Iselle if it stays south of the Big Island.
To maintain their power, cyclones need to stay vertically stacked.
When Iselle plowed into the island on Aug. 7, Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea hung up the bottom of the storm column and severely weakened the system as it continued up the island chain. That buffering effect may not happen this time.
Additionally, the storm is expected to slow down as it approaches the islands.
A ridge of high pressure has steered Ana to the west, but a shift in the ridge Thursday was expected to bring the cyclone on a more northwesterly track toward the island. Ana was running into 11 mph shear out of the northwest on Wednesday, but that wasn’t enough to counteract the effects of warm water fueling the system, forecasters said.
Civil Defense may begin opening emergency shelters as early as Friday morning, depending on how forecasts unfold, Oliveira said. However, shelters may open sooner if surf begins to impact coastal communities, he said.
Should the shelters open, people need to bring all their own supplies, said Barney Sheffield, the island’s disaster manager for the American Red Cross.
“We won’t be providing anything but a safe place from the storm,” he said on Tuesday. “Afterward, we’ll evaluate if we need long-term shelters depending on the level of destruction.”
Concerns about the approaching storm prompted cancellation of events for the weekend, including the Mayor’s Health Fest and Keiki Triathlon on Saturday and the West Hawaii County Band performance at Hale Halawai on Friday.
The U.S. Coast Guard is urging vessel owners to secure their boats and for visitors and residents to be wary of rip tides and high surf ahead of the storm.
Hawaii Electric Light Co. is gearing up for an islandwide response to wind damage to the power grid, said Rhea Lee, the company’s administrative manager.
In Ocean View, lines at the gas pumps were backing up and residents were buying water, toilet paper, beans and beer, said Sandi Alexander, a member of the Ocean View Community Emergency Response Team.
“A couple of businesses just left plywood up (after Iselle),” Alexander said. “I think they’re just waiting for the end of hurricane season.”
Iselle damaged fruit, flower and coffee farms in Puna and Ka‘u.
Chris Manfredi, Hawaii Farm Bureau Federation president, feared worse effects from a direct hit by Ana on Ka‘u and southwest island farmers.
“This time, the topography is not favorable” for those areas, he said. “It’s a very different storm.”
Trinidad Marques, owner of Alii Hawaiian Hula Hands Coffee farm in Pahala, had 400 coffee trees damaged by Iselle. Marques was boarding up windows this week and worried the farm will see greater damage this time.
“As far as the farm what can we do? It’s out in the open,” Marques said.
“It’s the winds that scare us,” she said.
Stephens Media reporter Tom Callis contributed to this story.
Email Bret Yager at byager@westhawaiitoday.com.