Recent changes at Kilauea’s summit, including increased seismic activity, suggest magma has moved into a shallow area beneath the southern part of the caldera and upper Southwest Rift Zone, geologists said Friday.
Recent changes at Kilauea’s summit, including increased seismic activity, suggest magma has moved into a shallow area beneath the southern part of the caldera and upper Southwest Rift Zone, geologists said Friday.
And while it is not possible to predict the exact outcome of the activity, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory has identified several scenarios that could play out in the coming days or weeks, including that magma will continue to accumulate in the southern part of the caldera, rise toward the surface and erupt in the upper Southwest Rift Zone and/or in the caldera.
In that case, scientists say they would expect to see even stronger earthquake activity in the southern part of the caldera, as well as ground cracks.
“However, the overall evolution of unrest in Kilauea’s summit area and upper rift zones in the coming weeks to months is uncertain,” HVO wrote in a statement Friday. “The magma storage system within Kilauea is highly pressurized at this time, and future changes in the location of unrest — and the potential for eruption — could unfold quickly (in days to hours).”
Other possible scenarios, HVO said, include continued magma accumulation that leads to either no eruption or a rapid intrusion into the Southwest Rift Zone.
Over the past week, the lava lake atop Kilauea’s summit has dropped significantly. As of Friday morning, the lake surface was about 165 feet lower than the newly created vent rim, which as a result pf repeated overflows now sits about 26 feet above the floor of Halema‘uma‘u Crater.
As of noon Friday, earthquakes during the past 12 hours were occurring every couple of minutes. The largest recorded Friday included a magnitude-3.2 at 8:27 a.m. and a magnitude 3.0 at 10:52 a.m.
During this period of elevated summit activity, there has been no obvious change in the eruption rate of lava from the Pu‘u ‘O‘o vent, HVO said. The observatory says it is continuing to closely monitor Kilauea, watching for any signs of unrest that may precede a new outbreak of lava or changes in activity at Pu‘u ‘O‘o or the summit.
For update information, visit hvo.wr.usgs.gov.