Hawaii residents could see a more active hurricane season this summer compared to last year, when Tropical Storm Iselle battered Puna. ADVERTISING Hawaii residents could see a more active hurricane season this summer compared to last year, when Tropical Storm
Hawaii residents could see a more active hurricane season this summer compared to last year, when Tropical Storm Iselle battered Puna.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center predicted Tuesday that projected conditions, paired with an expected increase in El Niño activity, point to between five and eight tropical cyclones developing in the Central North Pacific Basin between June 1 and Nov. 30.
Such cyclones can take the form of tropical depressions, with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph; tropical storms, with wind speeds up to 73 mph; and hurricanes, with winds 74 mph and greater.
“There’s a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season, 25 percent chance of a normal season and a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season,” said acting Director Tom Evans during a Tuesday morning news conference.
The increase in activity will be driven in part by a strengthening throughout the summer of the current El Niño conditions, in which ocean surface temperatures near the equator rise higher than normal.
“(El Niño) has been established; it’s out there and it’s been increasing over the last many months,” Evans said. “El Niño conditions typically mean a more active hurricane season in the Central Pacific.”
The prediction for last year called for between four and seven cyclones, while the average range is between four and five. Last season saw a total of five cyclones, including Hurricane Iselle — which, despite losing steam and being downgraded to a tropical storm before making landfall Aug. 7 in Puna, felled hundreds of trees and power lines.
The final impact tally for Iselle included 250 homes damaged, 28 homes experiencing major damage, and 11 being destroyed. Meanwhile, 23,000 customers were left without power, with many experiencing the outage for a week or more.
Two other hurricanes, Julio and Ana, veered dangerously close to Hawaii Island during the 2014 hurricane season.
The first cyclone of the 2015 season will be dubbed Ela, followed by Halola and Iune.
Evans added that while more storms are anticipated, all it takes is one to put a community in danger.
“As Hawaii County learned last year, it only takes one that can be really devastating to our islands,” he said. “It only takes one hurricane. So, it doesn’t matter if I forecast 11 or if I forecast one, all it takes is that one to cause a major impact and a lot of heartache and headaches for people who are directly impacted.”
In anticipation of an even busier hurricane season this summer, Hawaii Island residents will have to remain vigilant and stay informed about conditions as they change, said county Civil Defense Administrator Darryl Oliveira.
“For us, obviously it’s going to keep us on a heightened sense of awareness as the storm systems develop, and really staying in close communication with the National Weather Service and monitoring their forecast predictions,” Oliveira said, “as well as trying to ensure that we do our job, which is to keep the community informed of these systems that are being tracked and any forecasted path or track, as well as what kind of intensities and impacts we could see.”
“We’ll be watching every system very closely,” he added.
One way in which Civil Defense is working to improve responses to storms and other emergencies is by increasing its communication with community organizations, he said.
“We have been, over the last few months, spending a lot of time going back out and meeting with community associations and other groups to include some of the nonprofits and our faith-based community,” he said.
Meanwhile, Civil Defense also is focusing on providing timelier information to businesses that might serve as important lifelines during an emergency.
For instance, he said, as the power outages in Puna continued after Iselle, many stores in East Hawaii found their supplies of water and ice running low. By providing those businesses with timely updates about approaching storm systems, it is hoped they will be able to better prepare for increased demand for some items, Oliveira said.
“The question is, how do we provide timely information specific to the business community that would allow them to initiate or implement their response plans, not only as a means of surviving whatever event, as a business, but because their businesses provide resources to the community? How do we support them to remain doors open and operational, and providing the resources the community will be looking for, either prior to or after a storm?” he said.
Email Colin M. Stewart at cstewart@hawaiitribune-herald.com.
