A Category 2 Hurricane Guillermo is heading quickly toward the Big Island. ADVERTISING A Category 2 Hurricane Guillermo is heading quickly toward the Big Island. A shifting forecast track on Friday evening had the storm passing just north the islands,
A Category 2 Hurricane Guillermo is heading quickly toward the Big Island.
A shifting forecast track on Friday evening had the storm passing just north the islands, and the cyclone could begin impacting the island with 60 mph tropical storm force winds late Wednesday. However, meteorologists stress that the path and arrival time of the cyclone is still highly uncertain.
“People should not get too hung up on the forecast track, timing, or intensity, which are subject to change,” said forecaster Robert Ballard with the National Weather Service in Honolulu. “There are no guarantees. People should prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”
Located 1,400 miles east-southeast of Kailua-Kona and packing 105 mph winds, the hurricane was tracking west-northwest at a rapid 20 mph Friday evening. Hurricane-force winds extended outward 25 miles from the center, with tropical storm force winds extending out 115 miles.
Surf pushed far ahead of Guillermo will begin to rise tonight, with eight to 12-foot faces on east shores, Hawaii County Civil Defense Administrator Darryl Oliveira said.
A moist, unstable environment, low wind shear and warm ocean surfaces are setting the stage for further development today, and forecasters say Guillermo will peak as a high Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph sustained winds.
Increased westerly shear and cooler waters are expected to begin weakening the system to a Category 1 storm with winds at 90 mph on Sunday evening.
The hurricane’s rapid forward speed is expected to begin slowing today as it approaches the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge. The course Guillermo will take as it approaches midweek is still an uncertain one because of weak steering currents.
Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center in Florida began shifting the projected track to the south Thursday and Friday as a ridge to the north failed to show signs it would allow the storm to turn significantly to the northwest.
However, the track once again shifted Friday evening, showing the storm passing just to the north.
The NHC is declining to speculate on impacts to Hawaii. The cyclone will enter the North Central Pacific basin today, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu will begin issuing advisories at that point. In Honolulu, forecasters on Friday were cautious in talking about potential impacts because of the uncertainty surrounding the storm.
“Even though the track looks ominous now, there are a lot of possibilities,” Ballard said.
“The actual track the storm takes will make a huge difference in weather. If it passes north, it could be super humid, with downpours like when Ela passed. If it passes over the island, all bets are off. If it goes south, we could get wet, showery weather and winds that wouldn’t necessarily be damaging.”
Civil Defense participated in a conference call on the hurricane with emergency managers around the state on Friday afternoon and will be monitoring the storm through the weekend.
Civil Defense is issuing information statements on Guillermo and has sent out mass notifications via emails and texts to residents of Kapoho, along with phone calls to community associations to raise awareness, Oliveira said.
The low-lying Kapoho area is particularly vulnerable to swell from a system approaching from the east. Kings Landing is another area subject to inundation where outreach may be stepped up in the coming days, Oliveira said.
“The lesson from Iselle was that more information earlier is better, and accurate and local information — especially with a lot of information circulating out there on social media that may be erroneous, and TV reporting that may be Oahu-centric,” Oliveira said.
The NWS and Civil Defense are urging residents to pay attention to the coming weather.
The weekend is also a good time to undertake hurricane preparation, Ballard said.
“We encourage everyone to have a supply kit,” Ballard said. “Natural disasters come in many forms, not just hurricanes.”
Guillermo is a reminder that a very busy El Nino season is in full gear, Ballard said.
“I would be surprised if Guillermo is the last one we have to deal with,” Ballard said.
“The Pacific is fired up.”
Get more hurricane-related content, including preparation tips, evacuation info and daily tropical weather updates, on our hurricane season page, sponsored by Clark Realty, at www.westhawaiitoday.com/hurricane-season-2015.
