Tropical Storm Ignacio was keeping the Big Island in its sights Tuesday evening after becoming the ninth cyclone to form this year in the eastern Pacific.
Tropical Storm Ignacio was keeping the Big Island in its sights Tuesday evening after becoming the ninth cyclone to form this year in the eastern Pacific.
Fueled by warm surface temperatures, the storm is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane as early as today as it follows a northwest track that could put the island in its path. That’s a similar approach to those once forecast for two other cyclones — Guillermo and Hilda — that formed in the same area. Both became near misses.
Forecasters were cautioning that Ignacio also could veer to the north or south as it approaches during the next week.
Chevy Chevalier, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu, said there is little certainty, as usual, in the storm’s track and intensity beyond the next two to three days.
“It can do a lot of things at this point,” he said. “This track is not set in stone.”
But Chevalier said residents should be prepared in case there are no significant changes.
If Ignacio remains on the forecast track, he said residents could begin seeing its effects in the form of stronger winds and heavy rain showers early next week.
As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, Ignacio had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was moving west at 6 mph. Tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 45 miles.
After reaching hurricane strength, the storm is forecast to maintain that status through Sunday. The storm is forecast to pivot slightly to the northwest Wednesday as it rounds the southwestern extent of a subtropical ridge.
Since 1949, only two tropical storms have made landfall on the Big Island, including last year’s Tropical Storm Iselle. No hurricanes made landfall during that time period.
Warmer sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño conditions are fueling tropical cyclone formation, which also is helping maintain the storms’ strength as they approach.
Between 15 and 22 named storms were expected to form in the east Pacific from June through November. That prediction appears to be holding, Chevalier said.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center also is monitoring a system east of Ignacio, which it said has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Email Tom Callis at tcallis@hawaiitribune-herald.com.