A tropical storm weaving its way north could bring another hurricane into the neighborhood around mid-week.
Tropical Storm Oho gained energy Friday night about 425 miles south-southeast of the island, and was maintaining 40 mph winds on Saturday evening, prompting a tropical storm warning for offshore waters around the archipelago. Set to make a slow zig-zag northward, Oho is predicted to be a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds as it approaches, veers northeastward and passes at least 200 miles east of Hilo.
But that forecast track depends on a lot of factors, according to the National Weather Service.
“Even though we are outside the forecast track now, it’s way too early to know for sure what it’s going to do,” said NWS forecaster Kevin Kodama.
The storm was moving north, then east on Saturday at 7 mph with tropical storm force winds extending 35 miles from the center. Oho was expected to slow down and swing northwest Saturday night and Sunday, then weave back to the northeast on Sunday night.
The good news is that multiple weather models agree on the storm taking the S-shape that is forecast.
There is less agreement on the timing and sharpness of the turns, Kodama said.
The system was moving over warm waters and through a moist environment with light wind shear on Saturday.
Waters beneath the system are around 84 degrees, and slightly cooler waters and an increase in wind shear to the north are expected to limit strengthening.
Although water in the cyclone’s path will cool to 82 degrees, that’s still enough to support intensification, Kodama said.
The U.S. Air Force Reserve “Hurricane Hunters” will be flying through the system beginning Sunday night to provide more accurate data on the storm’s center point, track and intensity.
The forecast issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center has the system reaching hurricane strength Monday and peaking at 85 mph on Tuesday.
