Baseball prospect watch: Minor mistakes hurt collegiates; Hilo grad Carter could have room for error
As a first-round draft pick, Milwaukee Brewers farmhand Kodi Medeiros is a prized prospect, and so is Tampa Bay Rays minor leaguer Kean Wong, who’s being fast-tracked.
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But for other players with Hawaii ties, they face long odds in reaching the big leagues, and luckily some who wash out end up on TV, such as KHON2’s Sam Spangler, a former University of Hawaii pitcher.
Baseball America once did a study and found that one in six picks, or 17 percent, from the Major League Baseball June draft will reach the big leagues.
No surprise, the success rate is higher for first-round picks, around 73 percent, and falls off a cliff from there, down to 7 percent after the 20th round.
From 1999 to 2014, there were 73 players with Hawaii ties (college or high school) drafted and signed by MLB organizations. Of the group, 10 players, or 14 percent, have made it to the major leagues, including only five (Jerome Williams, Shane Victorino, Brandon League, Kurt Suzuki and Kolten Wong) with more time than a small cup of coffee.
Suzuki, the Minnesota Twins catcher, and Kolten Wong spent little time in the minors, and were fast-tracked. Each advanced a level after every season.
If there’s one trend, it’s that college-drafted players have little margin for slumps because there’s roster spot competition with the annual MLB draft.
A good example is University of Hawaii first baseman Marc Flores, the Chicago White Sox’ 30th round pick in 2014. In the Arizona Rookie League, he batted .222 with a .660 OPS in 117 at-bats. He was released and played independent ball this year.
Wong, the St. Louis second baseman, kept earning promotions because he hit everywhere he went. After only two pro seasons, he was sent to the Arizona Fall League, the tough offseason competition for the best prospects.
It’s a small sample size, but Wong batted .324 with a .342 on-base average and .734 OPS (on-base plus slugging) in 74 at-bats in the AFL, nearly on par with his Double-A numbers, .287, .348 on-base and .754 OPS in 523 at-bats.
Spangler was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 20th round in 2009. He lasted two seasons in the low minors, and finished with a 1-3 record and a 4.95 ERA in 72 2/3 innings.
The Rainbow Warriors have been pretty steady in developing draft talent. They’ve had at least one player drafted in 14 of the last 15 years; 2013 was the lone shutout. (In 2015, UH pitchers Tyler Brashears, LJ Brewster and Quintin Torres-Costa were drafted.)
In that 14-year span, 34 UH players have been drafted with a six-player class in 2011, highlighted by Wong, a first-round pick and the 22nd overall selection.
Wong and Blake Amaral are 2008 Kamehameha-Hawaii graduates. Amaral was drafted by the Los Angeles Angels as a Hawaii Pacific senior in the 40th round in 2012.
Like Flores, Amaral played one season in the Arizona League and was released. He batted .176 in 68 at-bats.
Longer leash
In that 16-season span (1999 to 2014), 19 prep players from Hawaii were drafted and signed, and only one was released after a single season. Aiea pitcher Randy Castillo, a 31st round pick by the Seattle Mariners in 2008, was that unfortunate anomaly. He went 1-1 with a 4.81 ERA in the Arizona League.
The patience with youth should provide outfielder Jodd Carter, a 2014 Hilo graduate and the Cleveland Indians’ 24th round pick, a bit of breathing room.
He’s spending his offseason working out at Kaha Wong’s batting cage on Railroad Avenue. Carter couldn’t be reached for comment.
Carter, 19, started the year in extended spring training. When camp broke and players were assigned to their affiliate teams (Low, Advanced A, Double-A, etc.) or released, Carter was held back at the Goodyear, Ariz., facility to work with instructors. There were no games to be played, only daily practices.
After the June draft, that’s when the rookie leagues and short-season leagues start. Not all teams have a short-season club; the Indians have one, the Mahoning Valley Scrappers.
Carter was sent to the AZL for the second straight time and performed well; he hit .273 with a stellar .828 OPS in 55 at-bats, and earned a promotion to Mahoning Valley.
In the New York-Pennsylvania League, Carter batted .233 with a .607 OPS in 159 at-bats in his first taste in slightly higher caliber competition.
He played with Saint Louis graduate Ka’ai Tom, a fifth-round pick out of Kansas. Tom batted .283 with a .777 OPS in 258 at-bats. Nathan Lukes, a seventh-round pick out of Cal State Sacramento, also added to the outfield depth.
Tom and Lukes, the 2015 draft picks, and Carter will all be fighting for spots on the Single-A full-season affiliate, Lake County Captains, who carried only four outfielders.
If Carter doesn’t become a Captain, he’ll likely have the safety net of another round of extended spring training, and an opportunity at Mahoning Valley, again, playing with another draft class.
Never too small
Bryce Uegawachi, a Kaiser graduate, is a good example that MLB doesn’t necessarily draft giants.
The slick-fielding shortstop stood 5 feet 6 and weighed 150 pound when the Indians drafted him in the 26th round out of HPU in 2001.
He played two seasons at Mahoning Valley, and finished with a .224 batting average in 250 at-bats, and held a .950 fielding percentage.
The biggest Hawaii hit in a small package is Kolten Wong, who’s listed at 5 feet 9.
The Cardinals claimed the NL Central with 100 victories and Wong, 24, is going to the postseason for the third consecutive season.