Heavy rains and high winds from Tropical Storm Darby are expected to begin affecting Hawaii Island tonight, although the storm’s predicted track remains something of a mystery.
“Even though Darby’s essentially on the doorstep of the Big Island, there’s still some uncertainty about the eventual path it’s going to take,” National Weather Service forecaster Tom Birchard said Friday afternoon.
The NWS has been anticipating that the storm system, which entered the Central Pacific basin earlier this week and is currently moving on a westward track, will take a turn to the northwest at some point.
“Today was the day it was supposed to be doing that,” Birchard said. “It was also expected to slow down in its forward motion, and it hasn’t yet.”
By contrast, he said, Tropical Storm Iselle had a stable track before it landed on the Big Island in 2014.
Forecasters advise residents to be prepared for all weather-related scenarios.
If the storm system does not make a northwest turn, there is a possibility its center could come ashore. There is also a possiblity that it could pass by to the south instead.
“There’s still that much uncertainty,” Birchard said. Darby, he said, could be one of the one-third of cases where the storm center lies outside of the NWS cone of uncertainty used on forecast maps.
As of 2 p.m. Friday, Darby was 240 miles east-southeast of Hilo and moving at a speed of 12 miles per hour. Tropical-storm-force winds extended 125 miles from its center.
“That puts the tropical storm winds not too far off the coast (of the island),” Birchard said. “We expect conditions to start deteriorating tonight, which would mean increasing winds and rain, locally heavy rain.”
Expected rainfall for the Big Island is somewhere between 10 and 15 inches.
“There’s going to be no avoiding the heavy rain,” Birchard said.
Tropical storms bring “a triple threat,” he said. Besides the rain, which can lead to flash flooding and ponding of water, high surf and strong winds are expected.
On Friday afternoon, surf was already being reported at 20 feet in some windward locations, Birchard said. Honolii was reporting regular 10- and 12-foot swells with occasional 18-foot peaks.
“Like we saw with Iselle, especially on the windward side, we see a similar type of wave run-up (on shore properties),” Birchard said. “The other thing that affects more places would be the strong, gusty winds.”
Gusts of up to 55 miles per hour are expected late tonight and into tomorrow. Winds tend to accelerate while moving through the Hilo and Puna districts, Birchard said.
“I think there’s still plenty of albizia to be taken out,” he said.
Depending on the storm’s eventual path, wind and surf should diminish by late Sunday, Birchard said.
Residents are advised to have their storm preparations taken care of before tonight. Emergency shelters will open across the island at 4 p.m. today.
Email Ivy Ashe at iashe@hawaiitribune-herald.com.
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Several weekend closures and cancellations were announced Friday in light of Tropical Storm Darby’s approach.
Camping and pavillion reservations at state and county parks have been cancelled through Sunday, according to Hawaii County Civil Defense.
State and county parks are closed today until further notice. The Panaewa Rainforest Zoo and Gardens and the Hilo Municipal Golf Course are closed through Sunday.
The lava flow viewing area was closed by Hawaii County. Portions of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, including campgrounds and sections of Crater Rim Drive, are closed until Darby passes by.
The Hilo Farmers Market is closed today through Monday, manager Keith De La Cruz said. It will reopen on Tuesday.
Hawaii Electric Light released a statement Friday announcing that its Incident Management Team was being readied in anticipation of potential impacts such as downed power lines.
Power outage notifications are issued on HELCO Twitter account, @HIElectricLight.
Hawaii Department of Transportation public information officer Tim Sakahara said the agency would be coordinating with the county to ensure preparedness.
Weather-related flight cancellations are made by individual airlines. Those with plans to travel from the Hilo International Airport Saturday and Sunday should check with the carriers regarding schedules.
A list of emergency shelters is as follows:
Hilo High – 556 Waianuenue Ave, Hilo
Honokaa High & Intermediate (pet friendly) – 45-527 Pakalana St, Honokaa
Kalanianaole Elementary (pet friendly) – 27-330 Mamalahoa Hwy, Papaikou
Kau High & Elementary (pet friendly) – 96-3150 Pikake Stl, Pahala
Keaau High (pet friendly) – 16-725 Keaau-Pahoa Rd, Keaau
Kealakehe High (pet friendly) – 74-5000 Puohulihuli St, Kailua-Kona, HI
Kohala High & Elementary – 54-3609 Akoni Pule Hwy, Kapaau
Konawaena High (pet friendly) – 81-1043 Konawaena School Rd, Kealakekua
Laupahoehoe High – 35-2065 Old Mamalahoa Hwy, Laupahoehoe
Mountain View Elementary – 18-1235 Volcano Hwy, Mountain View
Pahoa High & Intermediate (pet friendly) – 15-3038 Pahoa Village Road, Pahoa
Waiakea High (pet friendly) – 155 W Kawili St, Hilo
Waikoloa Elementary – 68-1730 Hooko St, Waikoloa Village
