A developing El Nino could result in a slightly busier than normal hurricane season this year, forecasters said today. ADVERTISING A developing El Nino could result in a slightly busier than normal hurricane season this year, forecasters said today. Five
A developing El Nino could result in a slightly busier than normal hurricane season this year, forecasters said today.
Five to eight tropical cyclones are expected to impact the Central North Pacific basin, said Central Pacific Hurricane Center Director Chris Brenchley. The hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, The center also forecast a 40 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.
The basin normally sees four to five cyclones annually. The number of storms has ranged from zero, most recently as 1979, to as many as 15 in 2015.
Many factors affect the level of tropical cyclone activity from year to year. Among them are El Nino, which correlates with warmer ocean temperature that cause increased storm activity and late season storms, and La Nina, which features cooler waters and historically has produced below normal activity seasons. Warmer waters fuel convection and storms.
Currently, the Central Pacific is seeing ENSO neutral conditions, however, El Nino conditions could develop during the season. If the El Nino doesn’t develop, the number of storms could be on the lower end of the forecast, Brenchley said.
Email Chelsea Jensen at cjensen@westhawaiitoday.com.
See Thursday’s edition of the Tribune-Herald for more about this year’s hurricane forecast.
