Hurricane Hector is forecast to strengthen as it enters the Central Pacific, likely late Sunday.
It’s not known yet if the hurricane will impact Hawaii Island, but the storm likely will make its closest approach Wednesday through Saturday next week, said Tom Birchard, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
Long-term models, which include a high degree of uncertainty, shows Hector passing the island to the south or veering north toward it.
“It’s 2,000 miles away,” Birchard said. “There’s still a lot that could happen between now and next week as far as evolution of the forecast.”
As of Thursday, Hector was a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. It was moving west at 13 mph. It’s forecast to become a major hurricane (category 3 or greater) by Saturday.
What could make the difference as far as impacts to the island is a ridge that’s currently driving the hurricane to the west. A break is expected to open in the next few days, allowing it to move more northward.
“Different models are handling the strength of that ridge a little bit differently,” Birchard said.
What’s known is that wind sheer in the Central Pacific will be less of a factor than normal, allowing Hector to gain strength over the next few days. It will be the first hurricane of the season to enter the region, which begins at 140 degrees west longitude.
“It will enter as a hurricane,” Birchard said.
“From there we will see what happens.”
Email Tom Callis at tcallis@hawaiitribune-herald.com.