Hawaii volcanologists have raised eyebrows at University of Miami researchers who claim to have predicted the current Mauna Loa eruption.
In May 2021, the scientific journal “Scientific Reports” published a study by UM researchers Falk Amelung and Bhuvan Varugu examining observations of terrain deformation on Mauna Loa utilizing satellite data.
Now, that study is being touted as proof that Amelung and Varugu accurately predicted the volcano’s current eruptive behavior.
The university’s public affairs office issued a press release Friday stating the study correctly “revealed which of the two rift zones of the Mauna Loa volcano would spew magma” more than a year in advance.
But other scientists are skeptical.
“If I tell you that Mauna Loa’s going to erupt, but not when, that’s not a forecast,” said Ken Hon, scientist in charge for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. “To call something a forecast, you have to have the when and the where.
“Reading the study, I don’t believe they had all the elements of a good forecast,” Hon said.
Former HVO volcanologist Mike Poland said the conclusion of the 2021 study lists multiple scenarios for a then-hypothetical future eruption, including the possibility that lava would move to the volcano’s Northeast Rift Zone. In particular, the paper stated that stress and deformation within Mauna Loa over the preceding five years could lead lava to move northward. But, he added, other potential scenarios are given equal weight, and the study does not make a formal prediction about the volcano.
“It’s not a prediction, but it is an interesting observation,” Poland said, adding that the science of the study appears to be sound.
Poland said the study hits upon a salient point: Around 2014, lava within Mauna Loa began shifting to the south before moving back to its starting position, with no clear explanation why.
But Poland also said the observations within the study are not particularly groundbreaking for people who study the volcano every day. He noted that Mauna Loa is possibly one of the most well-observed volcanoes on the planet, and HVO researchers are drowning in data.
“HVO has so much data all the time it’s difficult to publish anything about it, because we’re always reacting to the most current thing,” Poland said. “So, a lot of the studies about Mauna Loa are being done by academics, and that’s fine. It’s good science, and it helps us to map out the lava plumbing of Mauna Loa.”
Poland added that the current eruption — the first to occur during an age of advanced monitoring tools — stands to significantly advance the scientific understanding of Mauna Loa.
This is not the first claim Amelung has made about Hawaii volcanoes. In 2007, Amelung told “New Scientist” that data suggested Mauna Loa’s next eruption would be from its Southwest Rift Zone.
And in 2020, Amelung published a study in “Nature” proposing that the 2018 Kilauea eruption was triggered by heavy rainfall, and suggested that ongoing climate change will cause volcanic activity to increase.
That claim received a response from several volcanologists including Poland criticizing the study and its methodology.
“Understanding the causal mechanisms of volcanic eruptions is vital for hazard assessment and mitigation, and misattribution may compromise monitoring, preparedness, communication and response efforts,” read the response, published earlier this year in “Nature.”
Email Michael Brestovansky at mbrestovansky@hawaiitribune-herald.com.