Abortion bans raise fears inside GOP about backlash in 2024
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — As a new election season begins, the Republican Party is struggling to navigate the politics of abortion.
Allies for leading presidential candidates concede that their hardline anti-abortion policies may be popular with the conservatives who decide primary elections, but they could ultimately alienate the broader set of voters they need to win the presidency.
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The conflict is unfolding across America this week, but nowhere more than Florida, where Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law one of the nation’s toughest abortion bans late Thursday. If the courts ultimately allow the new measure to take effect, it will soon be illegal for Florida women to obtain an abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, which is before most realize they’re pregnant.
Even before he signed the law, DeSantis’ team was eager to highlight his willingness to fight for, and enact, aggressive abortion restrictions. The Florida governor’s position stands in sharp contrast, they say, with some Republican White House hopefuls — most notably former President Donald Trump — who are downplaying their support for anti-abortion policies for fear they may ultimately alienate women or other swing voters in the 2024 general election.
“Unlike Trump, Gov. DeSantis doesn’t back down from defending the lives of innocent unborn babies,” said Erin Perrine, a spokesperson for DeSantis’ super PAC, when asked about Florida’s six-week ban.
DeSantis’ latest policy victory in the nation’s third most populous state offers a new window into the Republican Party’s sustained political challenges on the explosive social issue. In recent days alone, Republican leaders across Iowa, New Hampshire and Washington have struggled to answer nagging questions about their opposition to the controversial medical procedure as GOP-controlled state legislatures rush to enact a wave of new abortion restrictions.
Recent electoral results suggest that voters aren’t pleased.
Republicans have suffered painful losses in recent weeks and months across Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada and even deep-red Kansas in elections that focused, at least in part, on abortion. Last week in Wisconsin, an anti-abortion candidate for the state Supreme Court was trounced by 11 points in a state President Joe Biden carried by less than 1 point.
“Any conversation about banning abortion or limiting it nationwide is an electoral disaster for the Republicans,” said New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican.
“The Republican Party has an inability to move off this issue in a way that doesn’t scare the heck out the average voter, the independent voter, the younger generation of voters,” Sununu continued. “These guys keep pushing themselves deeper and deeper into an ultra-right base that really does not define the bulk of the Republican Party.”
Privately, at least, strategists involved with Republican presidential campaigns concede that the GOP is on the wrong side of the debate as it currently stands. While popular with Republican primary voters, public polling consistently shows that the broader collection of voters who decide general elections believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
There are no easy answers as leading Republicans like DeSantis and even Trump, who appointed the Supreme Court justices responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade last June, face tremendous political pressure from the left and the right.
Anti-abortion activists have been particularly vocal in warning Republican presidential candidates that the party’s base will not tolerate any weakness on abortion given that GOP leaders have been vowing for decades to ban abortion rights if given the chance.
Before this week, Kristan Hawkins, the president of the anti-abortion group, Students for Life of America, was unwilling to describe DeSantis as a leader in the abortion fight.
“This is his opportunity to show himself as a leader on this issue. That’s what’s exciting about this moment,” Hawkins said. “He has done a lot, but we really needed to see action at the legislative level. I think this ‘heartbeat law’ fully cements his pro-life street cred.”
Katie Daniel, of the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, described Florida’s new law as “a huge step forward.” But she said it was only the beginning of what anti-abortion activists expect from leading 2024 candidates, including their ultimate support for a national abortion ban.
“The issue of abortion is not going away,” Daniel said. “It’s not about saying you passed the law, check the box, you’re done.”
Such pressure ensures that the issue will remain central to the 2024 campaign as Republican presidential prospects begin to fan out across America to court primary voters. At the very same time, an escalating court battle over access to an FDA-approved abortion pill is forcing GOP leaders to answer more questions.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, long a vocal abortion opponent, condemned the abortion pill during an interview this week with Newsmax while vowing to “champion the right to life.”
“We’re going to continue to champion the interests of women born and unborn and pushing back against the abortion pill,” Pence declared.
Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley told Iowa voters this week that abortion is “a personal issue” that should be left to the states, although she left open the possibility of a federal ban without getting into specifics.
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott outlined his support for a federal law that would ban abortions nationwide after 20 weeks of pregnancy.
“We should certainly always side with a culture that preserves and appreciates and respects life,” Scott told reporters. “How do we do that? I certainly think that the 20-week threshold is not a question in my mind at all.”
