Shohei Ohtani is the jackpot Mariners fans can dream about

When Major League Baseball recently released the designs and color schemes for the uniforms worn in the 2023 All-Star Game, featuring an American League jersey that is mostly teal with hints of navy blue, the running joke among fans, many of them local, on Twitter was some variation of:

“It’s the closest that Seattle will ever get to seeing Shohei Ohtani in a Mariners uniform at T-Mobile Park.”

To be fair, the Mariners would point out that their secondary color to navy blue has always been Northwest green, not teal, but the point, or in this case the punchline, still stands.

Funny? Debatable.

Cruel? Yes.

True? Possibly.

The idea of Ohtani playing for the Mariners is amusing to many for multiple reasons. But in the fantasy world that comes during All-Star festivities, where a ridiculous amount of talent comes together to play as teammates, why does it have to be a joke?

Why can’t Mariners fans dare to dream?

When a Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot reaches $300 million, drawing an increased number of people to try their luck against the impossible, those same people allow themselves to imagine what they’d do if they won and how they would spend the money.

Purchase a small island to live on? Buy the company you’re working for to become your boss’s boss? Take over the controlling interest in Twitter and then delete it in the name of humanity? Build a massive homestead for stray dogs to live until they could be adopted?

So why not play the same game with Ohtani? Thinking about him in the same lineup with Julio Rodriguez and smashing home runs off the windows of the Hit It Here Café or sending another ball in the third deck in right field. Or taking a spot in the starting rotation perhaps in between Luis Castillo and George Kirby.

If the Mariners were somehow to win the Ohtani lottery, they’d be spending probably double that aforementioned jackpot if not more to bring him to Seattle. Given what we’ve seen from Ohtani, it would be worth every damn penny in terms of cost vs. revenues. It’s something that matters to all ownership groups — some more than others.

Since coming over from Japan and signing with the Angels on Dec. 8, 2017, crushing the hopes and dreams of the Mariners and their fans, he’s exceeded all expectations on the field and in popularity.

In his first five seasons (2018-22), he has posted a .267/.354/.886 slash line in 566 games (1,986 plate appearances) with 103 doubles, 21 triples, 127 homers, 342 RBIs, 326 runs scored and 66 stolen bases. If you were to break those numbers down into an average 162 game season, that’s 29 doubles, six triples, 36 homers, 98 RBIs, 93 runs scored and 19 stolen bases.

Oh, and the pitching numbers over that time? Ohtani has made 63 starts, posting a 28-14 record with a 2.96 ERA. In 349 2/3 innings pitched, he’s struck out 441 batters, walked 118 and allowed 35 homers. Project those numbers over a 162-game season, that’s 34 starts, a 15-8 record with 62 earned runs allowed in 189 innings pitched for a 2.95 ERA including 238 strikeouts and 62 walks. Don’t forget he missed all of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery.

In terms of value over that span, he produced 13.5 WAR as a hitter per Baseball Reference’s wins above replacement metric and 11.1 WAR as a pitcher. Using FanGraphs WAR metric (fWAR), he posted a 13.3 fWAR in that time as a hitter and a 9.5 fWAR as a pitcher. Ohtani is also heavily punished by both WAR metrics because he’s a designated hitter and doesn’t gain the value from playing in the field.

“Obviously, Ohtani is a freak of nature and I don’t know if we’ll ever see anybody do both — pitch and hit at the level he does — in our game again,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said. “He’s a unicorn. He does it all.”

The Mariners have seen it firsthand a few too many times. In 76 games vs. Seattle, he’s posted a .248/.345/.504 slash line with 14 doubles, four triples, 16 homers, 47 RBIs and nine stolen bases, though he’s only had a .184/.280/.377 slash line in 31 games at T-Mobile Park with four doubles, six homers, 13 RBIs, 15 walks and 31 strikeouts. As a pitcher, he’s 5-0 with a 2.02 ERA in eight starts vs. the Mariners with 62 strikeouts and 15 walks in 49 innings pitched, including a 3-0 record and 1.50 ERA in three starts in Seattle.

Servais and Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto along with a sizable contingent of people from the Mariners front office were part of a group that met with Ohtani and his agent Nez Balelo and other representatives of the Creative Artists Agency on Dec. 7, 2017, in Los Angeles.

On that day, in a form of free agent speed dating, seven teams — the Angels, Mariners, Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Cubs and Rangers — met with Ohtani to offer presentations on why he should sign them.

The Mariners had a slick video produced, highlighting the city, the organization’s history of Japanese players and more. They had a massive manual, outlining how they planned to use him both as a pitcher and hitter while also being completely amenable to any needs or desires he might want from them.

“We’re not joking around,” Dipoto said in his Wheelhouse podcast just before the meeting. “We’re bringing the big guns. We’re bringing the ‘A’ game. When we sit down, we’ll be sitting down with very notable faces and that is a part of what we want to sell. We want to sell the Seattle experience and what it means to the Japanese Americans, our culture and how this organization has trended, and trended so positively when we have the star Japanese player.”

Some sources indicated that Ohtani was a bit overwhelmed by the presentation while others felt that the looming presence of Ichiro and Ohtani’s deference and respect to the Japanese icon actually worked against the Mariners.

More than a few people in baseball believe that Ohtani was always going to go to the Angels, preferring the comfort of Orange County, less of a national spotlight on the team, the presence of Mike Trout and the proximity to Balelo and the CAA offices.

“We always felt we had a shot,” Dipoto said a week later at the winter meetings. “From the very get-go, we felt we had a shot. We were definitely very public about our willingness to try to run him down. We felt very comfortable about the process. Can’t fault him. It’s his choice to make.”

And when this season ends, Ohtani will have a choice to make again as the most sought-after free agent in MLB history. While not all 30 teams will have a legitimate chance to sign him, the handful of teams that do will be dogged in their pursuit.

“It will be fascinating,” Dipoto said recently.

The Mariners fascination with adding Ohtani hasn’t subsided. If anything it’s only increased having competed against him.

“It’s unbelievable,” Dipoto said this offseason. “We have [projections] looking at what Ohtani could do back when we were scouting him in Japan, and what he actually did, if it’s even better. I thought he was Elvis when I saw him play in Japan. If I didn’t get a ticket for free, I’d pay for it. He’s that fun to watch.”

Always verbose, Dipoto spared no words in his praise.

“It’s such a unique skill set,” he said. “Hey, do you have 80 power, and 80 fastball and an 80-run tool? That’s a super small class of players. There’s only one in the world and I don’t know of anybody else. I don’t know if there’s ever been a player like that. I didn’t see Babe Ruth, but I know he wasn’t doing both of those things at that level at the same time.”

Do they have a chance? Nobody is quite sure what is determinant for Ohtani.

Some sources believe that fit and willingness to adhere to his needs, comfort level with city and organization and freedom (opt-out clauses) all matter more than the total sum of money to Ohtani, meaning he won’t go to the highest bidder. They believe teams on the West Coast are preferred due to time zone and weather.

Will the All-Star festivities offer small help the Mariners eventually convince Ohtani to wear a real Mariners uniform in the future?

It can’t hurt.