Just a week after Hurricane Dora contributed to the wildfires that caused death and destruction in West Maui and some property damage in West Hawaii, there are two more tropical cyclones lurking in the Pacific.
Tropical Storm Greg has crossed into the Central Pacific basin and is expected to pass to the south of the Big Island either tonight or early Thursday.
And Hurricane Fernanda, which is weakening in the Eastern Pacific well to the east-southeast of Hawaii, is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday and approach the islands as a remnant low-pressure system early next week.
Kevin Kodama, senior service hydrologist for the National Weather Service in Honolulu, last week predicted the convergence of a high-pressure system north of the islands and Dora’s passing to the south, which caused 50 mph and higher winds. While those winds didn’t cause the devastating wildfires, their occurrence during a dry summer stoked the rapid spread of the blazes that caught residents and officials off-guard.
Asked on Tuesday if Greg could cause something similar to the “red-flag warning” preceding Dora, Kodama replied with a quick and emphatic “no.”
”Greg is weaker than Dora was, and the high-pressure system that we have up north is weaker and farther away than when Dora passed here,” Kodama said. “The pressure gradient isn’t as strong. You know, the winds might increase, but we’re not looking at a high-wind warning-type situation.”
“We have tropical cyclones pass south of us all the time. That’s not unusual, at all,” he continued. “It’s part of tropical cyclone season in the Central Pacific. I understand there’s a lot of sensitivity, and it’s good that people are watching it, but this situation is not the same.
“We also have high pressure to the north of us in the summer. That’s totally normal. That’s why we have trade winds in the summer that go on for days and days. What was different is the high was a bit stronger than usual and a little closer than usual. And when you add Dora, that made it even stronger.
“It was a combination of factors.”
The National Weather Service has predicted isolated showers for the Lahaina area for Thursday and Friday night, after Greg’s passing to the south.
That forecast has left Gov. Josh Green with conflicted thoughts.
“I want the rain, ironically, but that’s why we’re racing right now to do all the recovery that we can, because winds or heavy rain in that disaster setting, which it’s showing right now, it will make it even harder to get the final determination of who we lost,” Green said Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the “cone of uncertainty” track forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami have plotted for Fernanda has the storm approaching the Big Island directly, but Kodama notes that Fernanda is still too far from Hawaii to measure the accuracy of the path currently forecast.
“Right now, the forecast calls for it to dissipate as a tropical cyclone and pass us as a remnant low,” he said. “That could make it a potential rain threat, but right now, what looks like it’s coming in is an enhancement of the trade showers. But it’s way out there.
“If the remnant passes north, our trade winds could shut down and it could be very warm and humid. Then we could have some afternoon showers, maybe.
“But if it goes right over the islands or passes just a bit south, then we might have an uptick in the trades and more rainfall. … And it’s still a week or so away.”
Noting it’s been a warm, dry summer and a robust tropical cyclone season, Kodama said it’s best for island residents and visitors to be informed.
“What we’re trying to communicate right now is to stay tuned,” he said. “It’s still too early to be specific about it, but as always, we are watching it closely.”
The Associated Press contributed to this story.
Email John Burnett at jburnett@hawaiitribune-herald.com.
