Could Gavin Newsom run for president in 2024? Lots of GOP insiders are all but convinced

Gov. Gavin Newsom for president in ‘24? A lot of influential conservatives are convinced that it’s going to happen.

The chatter goes something like this: President Joe Biden, age 80 and with persistently low poll numbers, will step down after next year’s primaries and let party convention delegates pick a replacement.

“It’s a pretty widespread feeling among conservatives,” said Carter Wrenn, a veteran North Carolina Republican strategist.

That will leave the California Democrat as a serious threat to win the White House. And it means that the GOP will do whatever it can to put Newsom in a negative light before most of America learns more about him.

But the conservative fascination with Newsom goes beyond the expectation that Biden’s exit will elevate him onto the ticket — or that his California liberalism may make him easy to beat. Newsom’s aggressive style energizes the conservative mediasphere. They like a fighter.

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‘WARMING UP’

Newsom has repeatedly denied any interest in a run next year, and Biden is actively running for a second term. But conservatives suspect things will change.

Fox News Channel commentator Sean Hannity suggested as much earlier this summer in an interview with Newsom. “I don’t think Joe Biden is mentally or physically capable of being the president of the United States” he said, adding:

“I suspect if I took your phone and I took a look at it…I would bet on a daily basis that there are people urging you to run for president and primary him.”

Newsom replied that his phone routinely lights up with people praising Biden’s accomplishments, including Republicans who appreciate bipartisan achievements.

“Everybody has their chatter and everybody’s out there rooting for America….I’m rooting for our president and I have great confidence in his leadership,” Newsom said.

But the conservative beat has gone on.

Fox commentator Jesse Watters cited the Hannity-Newsom discussion on homelessness (“We own this,” Newsom acknowledged) and saw it as practice for a 2024 presidential bid.

“He is definitely warming up,” Watters said.

This week, conservative radio and podcast commentator Hugh Hewitt offered a scenario for a 2024 bid: “President Biden wins the South Carolina primary, and then he and the First Lady announce, ‘You know what? We’re too old for this job, and we’re just not going to run anymore.’”

Add to all this the notion that the Democrats’ heir apparent to Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, is not seen by Republicans as a strong candidate, and therefore someone Democrats may not want heading their ticket.

“Kamala Harris has been an utter failure as vice president, from stumbling word salads to her incompetence as the border czar. She has a worse rating than Joe Biden,” said California Republican Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson.

So, she said, “It’s no surprise that Gavin Newsom is waiting in the wings in hopes to be next in line as the Democratic Presidential nominee.”

Biden hasn’t hinted that he’s even thinking of getting out. Newsom has been an active Biden supporter.

He does appear to be positioning himself for national office some day. He has the sort of campaign finance tools that presidential contenders often use, appeared for two lengthy interviews on Hannity’s program and has agreed to debate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis..

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‘HE WOULD BE EASY TO BEAT’

“Conservatives want to build him up because they figure that he would be easy to beat in a general election. On that point they are not wrong,” said John Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and former Republican National Committee staffer.

There are plenty of Newsom-bashers. Rep. Keven Kiley, R-Rocklin, who led the unsuccessful 2021 effort to recall Newsom, is a freshman congressman who cites crime, homelessness and other problems that he says have become worse since Newsom became governor in 2019.

“Gavin’s Newsom’s insistence that such conditions are a ‘model’ for the country is rightly met with derision from Republicans and Democrats alike. They don’t want to see these problems afflict their own states,” Kiley said.

What conservatives know they need to counter is Newsom’s charisma and to some extent his willingness to be pragmatic.

“I think he’s a strong candidate. He’s very charismatic, he’s likable,” said Sal Russo, a Sacramento-based Republican consultant.