Biblical accounts of espionage underpin the claim that it is the world’s second-oldest trade (the oldest being prostitution, also found in The Good Book’s opening chapters). A field with such longevity has clearly adapted to technological advances, the evolution of political and economic systems, and the rise and fall of nation states. So, what’s new today?
As editor of the Weekly Intelligence Notes — the Association of Former Intelligence Officers’ online news magazine (www.afio.com) — I spend countless hours weekly curating news from around the globe about intelligence: busted spy rings in Europe, classified document leaks in the U.S., CIA diversity initiatives, Chinese operators’ attempts to get into Five Eyes partners’ knickers, movies depicting real cloak-and-dagger operations from WWI to Abbottabad, espionage history back to the Roman Empire. Here’s my optic.
Cyberespionage. I frequently encounter news on Indian hacks of Pakistani military systems, Israeli cyber strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, Russian penetrations of U.S. systems, North Korean computer attacks on European allies. Stealing secrets and executing covert action (sabotage) via computer code is now a well-established arena. When I left the CIA a decade ago, it was already a thing; now it is the thing. At Langley, one of the newest career tracks is Cyber Operations Officer under the newest C-suite level component, The Directorate of Digital Innovation — established in 2015 and currently run by my old boss, a traditional spook, Jennifer Ewbank (check out her public addresses online).
Open Source Intelligence (OSINT). The OSINT Foundation ( www.osintfoundation.com) was established last year to develop intelligence-communitywide standards and professionalize the field, but some still debate whether or not it is “intelligence.” So … what is it? Well … the trade-craft is learned online and, increasingly, in college classes. Targeted information is sensitive, but not classified, and is found in publicly available data, not stolen from safes. (It is, however, hard to identify or locate or requires sophisticated analysis — reverse searches, photo interpretation, digital forensics — to reveal its worth.) The CIA now has Open Source Exploitation Officers, but even nongovernment players are doing remarkable work in the field. For example, in 2020, Amsterdam-based Bellingcat (www.bellingcat.com) remotely uncovered the identity of assassins in Russia’s domestic security service (FSB) after they poisoned an opposition leader with a nerve agent. (Check out the 2021 book “We Are Bellingcat: Global Crime, Online Sleuths, and the Bold Future of News.”) Even developing nations can build a world-class OSINT capability, and for less money than building satellites, communications intercept gear, or a professional spy corps.
Artificial Intelligence. In my spy balloon column ( Tribune-Herald, Mar 12), I noted how intelligence applications for new technology surface quickly. AI is no different. In September, the CIA announced the launch of a ChatGPT equivalent aimed at “finding needles in the needle field,” and NSA announced the opening of an AI Security Center. The months prior were filled with MI6 and NSA leaders’ proclamations on the utility of AI in their trade, and concern that AI could eat into the jobs of professional intelligence analysts while elevating covert influence campaigns to a new level (mind this warning as we approach our presidential election). In June, Israel’s Shin Bet (akin to the FBI) announced development of its own generative AI platform (like Google’s Bard) to identify and neutralize internal threats. (Machines can exploit complex patterns that humans cannot detect.) AI-augmented photo interpretation, including for satellite imagery, is a logical next step, if not already extant.
Deep fakes. They continue to improve, get harder to detect, and get easier to produce by anyone with basic skills and a laptop. Intelligence applications are only limited by the imagination — counterterrorism influence operations, building a NOC’s cover, framing a gifted foreign intel officer to justify expulsion — and detection methods can have limited impact. An image cannot be “unseen,” and once a target audience buys into a narrative and is whipped into a frenzy, course reversal can be difficult, irrespective of the technological wizardry exposing afraud.
Biometrics. Privacy concerns limit this technology’s rollout in the U.S., but not in other nations. Facial recognition tools on Shanghai’s streets facilitate control of society (monitoring law compliance and Party loyalty, preventing undesirable elements — including spies — from plying their trade. I can modify my speech pattern and gait, but how many aliases can safely include the same retinal scan? How do you hide your DNA?
Quantum Cryptography. Not quite arrived on scene (at least not in the unclassified world), but it’s the subject of much discussion and research by codebreakers and — if implemented — is expected to revolutionize information security. It exceeds the scope of this article to explain the foundation of this technology (quantum mechanics and quantum computing), but we can all appreciate the anticipated benefits: an inability to copy anything encrypted using this method and the instant detection of any attempt to read the encoded data. Wow.
And there you have it: an ever-changing field. What do you imagine will come next?
J.P. Atwell is a former senior CIA operations officer. His two-decade career began as an intelligence analyst and took him to every continent, save Antarctica. He now calls Hawaii Island home. He welcomes your comments at island.intelligencer@gmail.com.
