Hawaii holiday travel is expected to be soft
The Transportation Security Administration estimates a record holiday travel season nationwide based on previous records set this year across airport security checkpoints.
TSA expects to screen 30 million passengers across the nation during the 12-day Thanksgiving travel season, which begins Friday and runs through Nov. 28.
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TSA Administrator David Pekoske said in a statement Monday, “We expect this holiday season to be our busiest ever. In 2023, we have already seen seven of the top 10 busiest travel days in TSA’s history.”
“We are ready for the anticipated volumes and are working closely with our airline and airport partners to make sure we are prepared for this busy holiday travel season,” Pekoske said. “We will also do our best to maintain wait time standards of under 10 minutes for TSA PreCheck lanes and under 30 minutes for standard screening lanes. I am grateful for our dedicated employees who continue to remain vigilant and focused on the mission during this holiday travel season and beyond.”
Hawaii travel sellers say tourism across the Hawaiian Islands, which was softening even before the devastating Aug. 8 Maui wildfires, which killed 100 people, is not likely to set any holiday records.
Still, travelers should be aware that even if this year’s holiday travel period for Hawaii isn’t forecast to be as strong from a tourism standpoint, the combination of improving visitor demand as well as a boost in local travel might make state airports feel busier than they have been in recent times. Also, those traveling into and out of Hawaii should note that other airports on their itineraries may be dealing with record passenger volumes.
Right after the wildfires, tourism to all of Maui was shut down. Tourism to areas outside of West Maui reopened shortly after, but the county did not allow West Maui to begin a phased-in return of non essential travelers until Oct. 8. On Nov. 1, the county finally reopened tourism to all of West Maui.
These regulations, combined with strong social media messaging, especially from celebrities, that Maui should stay closed to give wildfire survivors time to grieve and heal, resulted in immediate and staggering economic losses. Visitors to Maui right after the fire dropped by 75%, representing an estimated $13 million loss of visitor spending per day, according to statistics from the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.
DBEDT has since indicated that visitors are gradually returning, but arrivals to the island are not expected to recover to pre-fire forecast levels until 2028.
The latest tourism data from DBEDT for September showed that some 651,286 visitors came to the Hawaiian Islands, down 7.4% from September 2022. Arrivals to Maui plummeted 57% to 94,221 visitors in September, according to the DBEDT data.
Anecdotal information from the state’s visitor industry suggests tourism has begun improving, albeit slowly.
Jerry Gibson, president of the Hawaii Hotel Alliance, said, “Thanksgiving is a little slower than normal. We are off a few points from last year. But we are seeing a last-minute pickup for the end of December—more for Oahu, Big Island and Kauai. It’s not astronomical, but it’s a pickup and we are grateful for that.”
Gibson said room rates for the festive season are generally higher than the rest of the year. However, he said those booking holiday season trips to Hawaii this year are likely to see more value than they have over the past couple of years due to the slower volume.
He said Maui hotels have been hard-hit by the fires but have started to see higher numbers on the South side, where occupancy is now about 70%, and is expected to increase for the holidays. He said Kaanapali is running an occupancy of about 68% to 69%, mostly from displaced residents, employees and disaster workers.
Hawaii travelers should take note of the busiest travel days, as passenger volumes at the airport may be higher than what they have seen in recent months. TSA says that historically, the three busiest travel days are the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Sunday afterward. TSA expects to screen as many as 2.6 million passengers on Tuesday, Nov. 21 and 2.7 million passengers on Wednesday, Nov. 22.
