WASHINGTON — Based on the momentum from this month’s presidential contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, Joe Biden and Donald Trump appear poised to give the nation a sequel to the 2020 election — but even strong victories this week for both men revealed weak spots for each.
AP VoteCast surveys conducted in Iowa and New Hampshire show that Trump, the former president, has nurtured a fervent loyalty among the Republican base. But that loyalty exacts a price: He has so far not gained traction with the college graduates and suburbanites who could be decisive in November’s general election.
Biden, the current president, has enjoyed the benefit of a broad and diverse Democratic coalition. Yet the breadth also gives his coalition a brittleness, with differences over the conflict in the Middle East and immigration possibly splitting the voter bloc.
At stake is not just control of the presidency, but how the world’s wealthiest and most militarily powerful nation sees itself.
The divides in the population have set a course for an uncertain future, one in which a group of voters worn down by the pandemic and political dysfunction may well need to choose between greatly diverging paths – again.
AP VoteCast is a survey of 1,989 New Hampshire voters who took part in the Republican primary and 915 Democratic primary voters. The survey was conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
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THE LIMITS OF TRUMP’S APPEAL
Many Republicans who once idolized Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan are now stepping in sync with the 77-year-old Trump, who has recast the party in his own image.
States like New Hampshire and Iowa are full of voters from small towns and rural communities. The majority don’t have college degrees. Nearly all are white. In 2020, AP VoteCast found that 43% of all voters nationwide in the general election were white and without a college degree. Trump won a resounding 62% of this group four years ago, a base that makes him formidable within the GOP and beyond.
The polling shows these voters like his messages on restricting immigration, erecting a wall along the Mexican border and pumping out more oil and natural gas within the United States. But those policy stances also stir controversy with voters who see immigration as a positive, border walls as ineffective if not evil and fossil fuels as worsening the damage from climate change.
For all his rambunctious rallies and speeches, Trump failed to win the national popular vote in 2016 or 2020. The polling shows he continues to repel many college graduates and self-identified political moderates.
In New Hampshire, Trump lost a majority of moderates and about two-thirds of those who identify as independents. He lost about 6 in 10 who have college degrees, and he’s shown a persistent vulnerability among voters living in suburbs.
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IS BIDEN’S COALITION SPREAD TOO THIN?
Biden’s name was not on the ballot in New Hampshire’s primaries. The Democrats moved their first official presidential contest to South Carolina, leaving New Hampshire to proceed with a largely symbolic event that required his supporters to write in his name.
In the months leading up to the primary, Biden showed potential weaknesses in separate polling of U.S. adults by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. High inflation had hampered his public approval, while his policy wins on infrastructure, computer chips and addressing climate change did little to excite voters.
New Hampshire did deliver a pleasant surprise for Biden. It showed that 8 in 10 Democratic voters approved of his economic leadership, which is slightly higher than his national approval among Democrats on the issue in AP-NORC polls.
That optimism comes amid data showing that the economy grew briskly in 2023 as inflation eased dramatically and hiring was solid.
Nearly 9 in 10 of those voting in the Democratic primary said they would vote for Biden in November. Still, Biden failed to win over a majority among the small set of unaffiliated voters who chose to cast a ballot on the Democratic side.