Iran has made a concerted effort to rein in militias in Iraq and Syria after the United States retaliated with a series of airstrikes for the killing of three U.S. Army reservists this month.
Initially, there were regional concerns that the tit-for-tat violence would lead to an escalation of the Middle East conflict. But since the Feb. 2 U.S. strikes, U.S. officials say, there have been no attacks by Iran-backed militias on U.S. bases in Iraq and only two minor ones in Syria.
Before then, the U.S. military logged at least 170 attacks against U.S. troops in four months, Pentagon officials said.
The relative quiet reflects decisions by both sides and suggests that Iran does have some level of control over the militias.
The Biden administration has made clear that Iran would be held accountable for miscalculations and operations by proxy forces, but it has avoided any direct attack on Iran. The U.S. response “may be having some effect,” Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., a retired head of the Pentagon’s Central Command, said in an interview.
“The question is are the militias attacking or not,” he added, “and at least for now, they are not.”
The lull also marks a sharp turnaround by Iran. Tehran had for months directed its regional proxies in Iraq and Syria to attack U.S. bases in the Middle East as part of a wider battle against Israel, which is fighting Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
The U.S. and Iranian officials interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence.
As the proxies’ attacks intensified, culminating in the deaths of three American soldiers, Iranian leaders worried that the level of autonomy provided to the militias was starting to backfire and might drive them into war, according to Iranian and U.S. officials.
“They are scared of direct confrontation with the U.S., they know that if Americans are killed again it would mean war,” said Sina Azodi, a lecturer at George Washington University.
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