Iran may be close to launching missile or drone strikes on Israeli targets in response to a deadly attack on its diplomatic compound in Syria last week. Yet how the Islamic Republic retaliates is more complicated than the why.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly said Israel will be “punished” for the assault, which destroyed the consulate building and killed at least 13 people. The risk is that the move could significantly escalate the conflict in the Middle East and put Iran even more in the crosshairs.
The U.S. and its allies believe a major revenge attack is imminent, either by Iran or its various proxies in the region, according to people familiar with the intelligence. Recent history suggests any assault will be measured against what might come next from Iran’s adversaries. When the U.S. killed General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, for example, Iran opted for non-lethal attacks on military bases.
“Iran is in a precarious position — Israel has been calling its bluff for some time,” said Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor at Kuwait University. “It’s kind of damned if it responds and damned if it doesn’t.”
At stake for Iran is the risk of diverting the world’s attention away from Israel’s war in Gaza, which Hamas authorities say has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians and led to increasing international and domestic pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A humanitarian crisis has been building in the enclave, and the United Nations has warned that tens of thousands of people are on the brink of famine. Tehran’s potential attack, which has spooked oil markets, could come in a variety of forms. Full-On War
Khamenei has said the Damascus assault was equivalent to an attack on Iranian soil, and the most explosive response would be to launch one in Israel. That would have the potential to trigger a full-on war that would likely draw in the U.S. and other Israeli allies.
Israel scrambled navigational signals over the Tel Aviv metropolitan area a week ago in preparation for an Iranian attack, a showcase of its capabilities. Another option is to target Israeli embassies, a tit-for-tat response to the Damascus bombing. But it would be a high-risk move given Iran’s other priorities in the Middle East. Or, Iran could respond by attacking Israeli or U.S. military bases