The prospects for an agreement appeared increasingly distant Thursday as William J. Burns, the CIA director who has been Biden’s main negotiator, left Cairo without a deal. Delegations from Israel and Hamas also departed, although midlevel officials from the United States and its fellow intermediaries, Egypt and Qatar, remained in Cairo to continue discussions in hopes of salvaging the process.
In theory, the main interlocutors were taking a break to see what Israel does with what it is calling a “limited” operation in Rafah. Reports from Cairo indicated that tempers were raw as various sides accused one another of bad faith, though U.S. officials insist a deal is still possible.
“Much of what we are seeing is aimed in part at trying to gain advantage in the negotiations, but the sum total has been putting a deal farther off rather than making one come together,” said Michael Koplow, chief policy officer of the Israel Policy Forum.
The essence of a proposal on the table would call for a temporary cease-fire in exchange for the release of hostages. Israel would also free hundreds of Palestinians in its prisons, allow people to return to the northern part of Gaza and facilitate an expansive increase in humanitarian aid.
The first phase of the deal is where all sides appear closest to agreement. In that opening stage, Israel would call off hostilities for 42 days; and Hamas would turn over 33 women, older men, and sick and wounded hostages it seized during its Oct. 7 terrorist attack, although some of them would be the remains of those who died. A second phase would extend the cease-fire another 42 days and result in the release of more hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
The most vexing dispute centers on whether the deal would eventually lead to a permanent end to the war, which Hamas insists on and Israel has refused to guarantee. American negotiators have called for negotiating a “sustainable calm” after the cease-fire begins, without defining that precisely.
Netanyahu’s actions in Rafah in recent days, though, have complicated the dynamics. He has said he would invade Rafah “with or without a deal,” a vow that Hamas predictably considered a deal-killer. He also ordered limited strikes in Rafah in response to Hamas rocket attacks that killed four Israeli soldiers.
Biden has long objected to an assault on Rafah, where more than 1 million Palestinians have taken refuge, because he has seen no war plan that would not result in extensive civilian casualties. After months of warning Netanyahu against a Rafah operation, Biden finally took action after U.S. officials detected Israeli moves that they considered a prelude to an invasion. By pausing delivery of 3,500 bombs, Biden signaled that he will not provide more offensive weapons that would enable an attack on Rafah.
“Biden thinks that preventing a Rafah operation will force Israel to negotiate more concretely, and Netanyahu thinks that a new military operation will pressure Hamas to dial down its demands,” Koplow said. “But Netanyahu’s insistence that a Rafah operation will come no matter what sort of temporary cease-fire Israel agrees to removes any incentive for Hamas to negotiate.”
Moreover, he added, “Biden’s pressure to prevent any type of operation in Rafah also removes any Hamas incentive since” Yehia Sinwar, the Hamas military leader believed to be hiding out in the tunnels of Gaza, “can reasonably assume that he will soon get a de facto cease-fire for free so long as he continues to hold out.”
Koplow noted that Hamas has made demands to which it could not plausibly expect Israel to agree, like insisting that Palestinian prisoners released in the first phase be produced before all Israeli hostages have been released and insisting that Israel get no veto over who is freed. “Thus, they are perhaps more than any party here making a successful negotiation impossible,” he said.
But the dynamics have changed significantly in recent weeks. Biden originally said he was against an assault on Rafah unless and until he could be shown a plan by Israel that would minimize civilian casualties. After multiple consultations about Israeli war plans, Biden has effectively said that such a plan is not possible.
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