Shohei Ohtani’s chances of winning NL MVP as a DH; replacing Acuña again

Another year, another Shohei Ohtani MVP debate.

The question in previous seasons was whether anyone but a player who performed as both an elite hitter and pitcher could be MVP. This time, the argument figures to be whether Ohtani should be the first player to win an MVP as a primary DH.

Too soon to discuss? Well, the season is only about one-third complete. But the Japanese media already is buzzing about Ohtani potentially making a new form of history. The odds, though, are against it. The bias against DHs in MVP voting is that strong.

David Ortiz had five straight top five MVP finishes between 2003 and ’07. Two of those were top three, and as Dayn Perry wrote for CBS Sports, only five other primary DHs have placed that high — Frank Thomas in 1991, Paul Molitor in 1993, Edgar Martinez in 1995, Thomas again in 2000, Victor Martinez in 2014 and Yordan Alvarez in 2022.

The problem for DHs is that voting members of the Baseball Writers Association often consider them akin to half a player. When Ohtani won the American League award in 2021 and ’23, he was more like two players. And the first of five criteria listed for voters is, “Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.”

Of course, the instructions to voters also say, “There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means.” Which perhaps explains why 21 starting pitchers and four relievers have won the award, though the last reliever to pull off the feat was Dennis Eckersley in 1992.

Ohtani currently leads the National League with a 1.010 OPS. Another DH, the Atlanta Braves’ Marcell Ozuna, is second at .998. The player who is the early favorite for the award, Ohtani’s Los Angeles Dodgers teammate, Mookie Betts, is third at .953. Betts, because of his move to shortstop, meets another criteria — “general character, disposition, loyalty and effort” — quite nicely.

For Ohtani to beat out Betts, he probably would need to do what the New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge did to him in the 2022 AL race — put together a season so outrageously dominant, voters will feel as if they are left with virtually no choice.

Judge set the AL home-run record that season and led the league in on-base and slugging percentage, beating Ohtani in OPS by 236 points. Ohtani also had a 2.33 ERA in 166 innings pitched, but 28 of 30 voters listed Judge first on their ballots.

The increased reliance of voters on Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a metric that estimates a player’s value based on his offense, defense and baserunning, further handicaps DHs. Yet Ohtani, even with a negative defensive value, actually ranks second to Betts in both FanGraphs’ and Baseball Reference’s versions of WAR. His baserunning helps elevate him. Ozuna, who gets dinged for both his defense and baserunning, is further back.

Ohtani’s OPS is well ahead of where he was after 58 team games in 2021 (.920) and ’23 (.872). If he gets to 1.100 and Betts finishes around .900, the difference still might not be enough, as long as Betts is passable at shortstop. But the sheer ability of Ohtani to even make this a conversation is another testament to his otherworldly ability.

If any DH can win this award, it’s him.

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The last time the Braves lost Ronald Acuña Jr. to a season-ending torn ACL, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos reacted by acquiring seemingly every bat available — Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall. The moves could not have worked out better. The Braves went on to win their first World Series in 26 years, and Soler was Series MVP.

This time, the Braves are in a different position. Acuña’s injury occurred two months before the deadline, as opposed to three weeks. Anthopoulos does not yet know what the team’s needs might be. If a starting pitcher or two gets hurt, Anthopoulos might have little choice but to stick with an outfield of Duvall, Michael Harris II and Jarred Kelenic, and direct the bulk of his resources toward pitching.

The Braves’ offense entered Thursday eighth in runs per game, and that ranking could rise through internal improvement alone — from Harris, Austin Riley and Matt Olson; Ozzie Albies and Sean Murphy. If in two months the addition of another outfielder is warranted, the supply should be ample enough for Anthopoulos to address the position at a reasonable price.

Consider the current statuses of the players Anthopoulos traded for the four hitters he acquired in 2021:

Bryce Ball (Pederson): A first baseman, he has drifted from the Chicago Cubs to the Cleveland Guardians to the Philadelphia Phillies, but has yet to rise above Double A.

Pablo Sandoval (Rosario): The Guardians (then the Indians) released him immediately after acquiring him, and his attempted comeback with the San Francisco Giants this spring ended with another release.

Alex Jackson (Duvall): The only member of this group to appear in the majors since getting traded, the catcher has appeared in 61 games over the past four seasons with the Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers and now the Tampa Bay Rays.

Kasey Kalich (Soler): Currently out of affiliated baseball, Kalich is in his second season pitching for the Cleburne (Tx.) Railroaders of the American Association.

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Within a span of three days this week, both the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Jordan Montgomery and Giants’ Blake Snell extolled the virtues of spring training — notable comments, considering neither pitched this spring while awaiting the outcomes of their respective free agencies.

Both pitchers instead worked out at training centers run by agent Scott Boras (Montgomery since has left Boras for Wasserman). Past Boras clients such as Kyle Lohse and Dallas Keuchel enjoyed success after following similar programs, but Snell, in particular, has struggled thus far.

Snell, who signed a two-year, $62 million deal with an opt-out, joined the Giants on April 8 without making a minor-league start, was on the injured list from April 24 to May 22 with a left adductor strain and through five starts has a 10.42 ERA.

“The one thing I would say is that big-league spring training, you need it,” Snell told reporters. “I thought I did everything I could to be ready. Even after two weeks, I’ve noticed how much better I was throwing the ball, just being here every day.

“You have to go to spring training. I hope teams see that. I don’t know what Montgomery is doing, but I bet it’s tough for him. It’s not easy. I didn’t face a big-league hitter until I pitched in my first game in the big leagues this year. It’s tough. You just have nothing to go off of. You’re just kind of like, ‘Oh, let’s see what we’ve got.’ I faced 18-year-olds. It’s all excuses. But it’s the truth.”

Montgomery, who agreed to a one-year, $25 million deal with a vesting player option for 2025, made a similar remark, saying, “I used to hate spring training. And now I’m like, I love spring training.” His path was slightly different than Snell’s — he made two starts in Triple A before joining the Diamondbacks — but his results also have not been to his usual standards. Through seven starts, his ERA is 4.69.

Boras echoed Snell in assigning blame to teams for not signing his clients sooner, saying clubs, “should understand it’s in the best interests of getting optimal performance to put the players through normal courses of preparation.” Team executives, of course, hold a different view, saying Boras’ expectations were too high; hence, the protracted discussions.

Snell, even when he goes through a full spring training, historically is better in the second half than the first. Last season, he posted a 5.04 ERA through May 19, then a 1.20 ERA in his final 23 starts to earn the NL Cy Young award. Facing minor-league hitters would not necessarily have helped him. Snell struck out 17 in nine hitless innings on a rehabilitation assignment while recovering from his adductor strain.

The blame for Snell and Montgomery signing so late is impossible to assign without knowing the details of the negotiations. One thing is clear, though: Pitchers are better off going through spring training than not.

•••

If your favorite team is struggling to score runs, rest assured it is not alone. In the second season of rules changes designed in part to boost offense, the run-scoring environment is pretty much the same as it was in 2022, the year before the changes took effect.

Why? Good question.

Through Memorial Day, the strikeout rate through the same number of games from 2023 had dropped from 22.7 to 22.3 percent, a seemingly encouraging sign. The batting average on balls in play, however, had dropped 10 points, from .297 to .287. And according to The Athletic’s Eno Sarris, pulled Barrels were traveling three feet less than they did last season, and tied for the lowest distance (378 feet) since the inception of the Statcast era in 2015.

The weather might be part of this. The average game temperature in April dropped from 63.5 degrees in 2023 to 62.9 in 2024. Then again, May has been warmer than it was a year ago, the average game temperature rising from 68.8 to 70.2. So the weather variances would figure to balance out.

Is it possible teams adjusted to the limits on defensive shifts by better positioning their infielders within the requirement that two must remain on either side of the second-base bag? Sure. The reduction in BABIP also could be partly the result of better defensive positioning in the outfield, where there are no restrictions.

In 2022, before the league implemented the new rules, Russell A. Carleton wrote in Baseball Prospectus that positioning in the outfield was even more effective at run suppression than in the infield. “The effects of better outfielder positioning are four times as powerful at taking away hits,” Carleton said. “More than that, not everyone gets shifted, but everyone hits fly balls. Better, data-driven, outfielder positioning is taking away far more hits than the infield shift.”

The sample is small. The downturn in offense probably is not attributable to one factor. But the situation bears watching. If the limits on shifts and rules to boost stolen bases aren’t having the intended effect, the league might need to explore other ways to satisfy its desire to increase offense.

The Texas Rangers are one of the teams frustrated with their offense, even with Corey Seager on one of his ridiculous tears — eight home runs in his last eight games, a 12-game hitting streak in which his OPS is 1.458. For most of the season, the defending World Series champions have not been whole.

The team’s pitching injuries are more notable. The Rangers, even after the return of Nathan Eovaldi this week, still have an entire rotation on the IL — Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, Tyler Mahle, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. But all season, the lineup has been in a state of flux.

Seager needed time to regain his form after undergoing sports hernia surgery on Jan. 30. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe missed the first three weeks with a strained right oblique. Third baseman Josh Jung remains out with a fractured wrist he suffered in the team’s fourth game. And both of the Rangers’ young phenoms, Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, have missed time as well.

Of those losses, Jung might have been the biggest, even with Josh Smith delivering surprising production as his replacement. Some with the Rangers view Jung, 26, as almost their version of Dustin Pedroia. Jung is intense and relentlessly positive. He cares deeply. He might not be as edgy as Pedroia — who is? — but his presence reduces the pressure on youngsters like Langford and Carter.

Only the Braves and Dodgers scored more runs than the Rangers last season. Entering Thursday, the Rangers were 10th in runs per game, but with plenty of room to grow.

•••

The move last Dec. 27 was a footnote to far bigger Dodgers news — the official announcement of Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million contract, the largest for a pitcher in major-league history.

To clear room for Yamamoto on their 40-man roster, the Dodgers designated for assignment a pitcher who had a 7.27 ERA in six relief appearances last season, left-hander Bryan Hudson.