Which MLB contenders have the most prospect chips to offer in trade deadline deals?
One of the biggest misconceptions in baseball is that teams without highly ranked farm systems have no prospects to offer in trade deadline deals. In fact, every organization has prospects other teams covet — even those with the bottom-ranked farms — and if a team is determined to make a deal, a deal can usually be had. That said, it’s far easier for teams to land their top trade targets if they have a larger pool of attractive prospects to deal from, and it’s easier for those teams to part with talented prospects when they have more in the pipeline.
So, which contenders are best positioned to make a big move at the deadline based on the strength of their farm systems? Looking at Keith Law’s recently released top-50 list, a few stand out amongst the crowd. What follows is not a list of players these organizations would be willing to deal, but it is a demonstration of the depth of their systems. Even if these clubs opt to hold onto their most prized prospects, their second-tier prospects should still be strong enough to make a match come the deadline.
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Deadline trades involving current top-100 prospects aren’t overly common, but they can occur when two teams’ situations align. The deal that sent Juan Soto to the Padres is one example. Last year’s trades involving Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are two others. So depending on how the deadline unfolds and the star players who become available, we could see another such deal this July.
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The Dodgers are running away with the NL West but have seen the Phillies slip past them as the top team in the National League. Los Angeles’ 26-man roster is stacked at the top, but has shown some early-season cracks that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is likely to attempt to fill.
The Dodgers’ system is perennially among the best, and though trades, graduations and a few injuries have thinned it some, they still have plenty of prospects to offer if they want to make a significant deadline deal.
Top prospect Josue De Paula, 19, is repeating Low A for now, and has improved in nearly every offensive category. With more than 500 at-bats at that level under his belt, he could move to High A soon, raising his profile even higher. Top pitching prospect River Ryan missed the start of the season with a tired shoulder but is back on the mound making rehab starts, while catcher Dalton Rushing continues to get on base at an above-average rate while boosting his average significantly at the Double-A level.
Their upper-level prospect depth in general has been reduced by injuries, especially on the pitching side, though they are starting to get some of those pitchers back. Righty Kyle Hurt (preseason No. 11 Dodgers prospect) is no longer so aptly named, as he’s returned to the mound after missing two months with shoulder inflammation. Left-hander Ronan Kopp (No. 17) is starting to look more like himself with Double-A Tulsa after missing the start of the season with injury. Payton Martin (No. 8) was promoted to High A for the first time last week. He missed April because of an injury but was able to make six truncated starts in May in Low A before the promotion.
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The Mariners were the biggest gainers in Law’s latest update to his top prospect list, with two prospects joining the top 50 who weren’t even on the preseason top 100 (Felnin Celesten and Jonny Farmelo). They were the only prospects to join the top 50 who weren’t on the original top 100 list. Top prospect Colt Emerson also made a big move, jumping from 37 to 10, while Cole Young and Harry Ford made significant jumps.
Seattle would appear to be in a prime buying position. With a young, talented pitching staff and star Julio Rodríguez signed to a long-term deal, the Mariners’ contention window isn’t likely to close anytime soon. Nevertheless, with the Astros and Rangers struggling and the A’s and Angels among the league’s worst teams, there’s never been a more wide open path for the Mariners to take home the AL West title.
They may win it even if they don’t significantly add at the deadline, but their chances of actually competing for a World Series title will be dependent on improving an offense that has been among the worst in baseball. They already fired offensive coordinator/bench coach Brant Brown, but on-field upgrades are likely to have a bigger impact. So look for Seattle to be buyers.
The Mariners may not be willing to trade any of their top-five prospects — though no one in a Jerry Dipoto system should be considered untouchable — but there is depth even beyond the top guys. With Emerson, Young and Celestin all shortstops, the Mariners might be willing to part with Michael Arroyo, who came into the season ranked fourth in their system. The 19-year-old is currently in Low A and has already set a career-high in home runs while also reaching base at an above-average clip.
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The Orioles are a near-lock for the postseason but will have to overcome the New York Yankees to claim another AL East title. It’s a deep, young and talented roster, but there are some holes — especially on the pitching side — that are likely to be addressed.
No, the Orioles are not going to entertain offers for Jackson Holliday. But even with Holliday off the table and Joey Ortiz traded to the Milwaukee Brewers as part of the Corbin Burnes deal this offseason, Baltimore still has more than enough talent in its system to make almost any deal it would want to and still have plenty of prospects left over.
The Orioles are particularly deep in infielders, which is why Holliday hasn’t yet received a second crack at the big leagues. Corner infielder Coby Mayo is the highest-profile infield prospect of the non-Holliday bunch. He’s currently on the IL, but with a career .932 OPS in 104 Triple-A games, Mayo seems major-league ready. Connor Norby, a second baseman/outfielder, recently got a call-up to Baltimore. His combination of power, decent speed and versatility could make him a coveted trade target for a team looking for major-league-ready talent.
