International news focused on security issues remains awash with reports on foreign covert influence operations against elections, societal stability and charged political events worldwide. Some targets are far from our homeland (in Europe), some are closer (in South America), and others share our border (Canada, Mexico). The United States is, of course, a target, too. (Remember Russian and Chinese intelligence agencies’ efforts to exploit the Maui fires last fall?)
Forensic investigations by universities and think tanks (like the Carnegie Partnership for Countering Influence Operations), analysis of open source intelligence by defense contractors (such as ManTech), reporting from national-level espionage agencies (the U.K.’s MI6 and France’s DGSE), and even efforts by U.S. corporations (like OpenAI) firmly pin most of the activity on Russia, China and Iran. (A recent exception: Israel’s blown covert social media campaign to influence U.S. legislators’ thinking about ongoing attacks on Hamas.)
This may remind you about what you learned regarding white, gray and black propaganda in this column (“Reading the news like a spook,” Part II, April 2023), including that it can be detected by media-literate news consumers. It may also trigger memories of our government’s acknowledgement of the threat to our nation when, in September 2022, Congress authorized the stand-up of the Foreign Malign Influence Center under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. So what’s new here? In a cowrie shell, the intensity and breadth of the operations, stemming from the use of AI.
Recall that good influence campaigns build on a kernel of truth and exploit preexisting societal conditions (like tensions), fanning flames and channeling angst in a desired direction. That said, consider how this may be employed against us, members of U.S. society, through current controversies.
The unprecedented felony conviction last month of former President Trump (one of the most polarizing political figures in our history) and the upcoming presidential election, which may feature this same personality, provide ample grist for bad actors’ foreign influence mills.
“Propaganda works best when those who are being manipulated are confident they are acting on their own free will.” — Joseph Goebbels
“What should we look out for?,” you ask. First, understand that the recent court ruling would have provided ammunition in the covert influence wars irrespective of the verdict, as will be true with the election and its outcome; the polarity of the issues and the person involved are what make them ripe for use against us.
Next, look for signs that the issues are being used to grow divisions and leverage the divide for the benefit of our adversaries (reducing aid to Ukraine, weakening resolve for defending Taiwan, recognition of a Palestinian state, undermining support for professional journalism and our security services, eroding the checks and balances that underpin our government’s stability).
Be particularly sensitive to indications that the narrative is trying to cast doubt on the value of our constitutional republic (and democracy more broadly) by attacking our judiciary, which is still upheld as a gold standard across the globe. Foreign efforts like these are largely aimed at discrediting the much-envied U.S. way of life, to convince the citizenry of authoritarian states that their hopes for democracy are misplaced, that they should accept limited freedom under the unchecked strongman leadership of Xi, Putin, and Khamenei.
An unfortunate side effect, however, is that this can fuel authoritarian sentiments in disgruntled pockets of democratic societies, including our own, and turn firebrands against the rule of law and judicial process in favor of party power or the advancement of controversial agendas.
Need proof? Look no further than the growing talk in U.S. political circles of reviving the short-lived schedule F civil service track (implanting sycophants of the country’s ruler into otherwise independent bodies of government), something seen in communist and totalitarian states and despotic regimes in the Middle East and North Africa. Look at the domestic political chatter about a “post constitutional” America.
Irrespective of your position on the Trump verdict and election, this column has in a few installments equipped you with media literacy tools to inoculate yourself against any efforts to manipulate your views (and your vote), to make you what Russian dezinformatsiya agents call “useful idiots.” So … be informed, not influenced. Be akamai.
J.P. Atwell is a former senior CIA operations officer. His two-decade career began as an intelligence analyst and took him to every continent, save Antarctica. He now calls Hawaii Island home. He welcomes your comments at island.intelligencer@gmail.com.