Israel on Thursday was a country on tenterhooks, with residents stocking up on food and water and hospitals preparing patients to move underground. The streets were quieter than usual — earlier in the week, officials encouraged Israelis to limit outdoor activity.
It was a country girding itself against an expected attack.
After the assassinations last week of leaders from two Iran-backed groups — Fouad Shukur, a top Hezbollah military commander, and Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader — Iran vowed revenge. Israel has said that it killed Shukur in retaliation for a rocket attack from Lebanon that killed 12 children and teenagers but has refused to comment on the blast that killed Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran.
Speculation over how Iran and Hezbollah might respond has kept the region on edge for days, with all sides issuing threats that have raised the specter of a wider war, and diplomats across the Middle East and elsewhere scrambling to tamp down the tensions.
Israel’s leaders have sought to project confidence, saying they are ready for anything. The country’s security council convened Thursday night in a command bunker in Tel Aviv to discuss preparations for the anticipated retaliation.
Intelligence has been sparse and frequently changing. But two Israeli officials and a senior Western intelligence official said that based on the latest information, Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group, is likely to strike first in a separate attack before Iran conducts its own retaliation. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
The officials did not provide further details about the potential Iranian-led attack.
Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, vowed in an address following Shukur’s death that the group’s response to the killing of Shukur would be severe.
“Let the enemy, and those who stand behind them, await our inevitable response,” Nasrallah said. “We are looking for a true response, not a superficial one,” he added.
Israel and Iran last reached a similar crossroads in April in the wake of an Israeli strike that killed senior Iranian generals in Syria. But in that case, Iran’s intentions were telegraphed well in advance. It fired roughly 300 ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, which intercepted most of the munitions with help from the United States and its allies.
Israeli officials say they are ready for any potential attack by Iran and its proxies. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel told soldiers that Israel was “prepared for defense, as well as offense.”
“We are striking our enemies and determined to defend ourselves,” he said.
Military analysts say, however, that Israel is better prepared for some scenarios than for others.
Since the 1990s, Israel has built a vaunted defense apparatus to protect its citizens from aerial attack. Aided by billions in U.S. aid, the country invested in advanced antimissile systems, while regulations stipulated that reinforced bomb shelters be built in houses and apartment buildings.
In the event of another barrage of ballistic missiles, Israeli troops would most likely fire long-range Arrow interceptors designed to take them out above the Earth’s atmosphere. Another system, the Iron Dome, would mostly shoot down short-range missiles launched from Lebanon or the Gaza Strip.
But Iran and Hezbollah could fire enough munitions to overwhelm Israel’s defenses. They could also fire swarms of drones, which fly at low altitudes on unpredictable trajectories and leave little radar signature, making tracking and destroying them far more difficult.
In April, the United States and Israel assembled a coalition that worked with Britain, France and Jordan, among others, to intercept incoming Iranian missiles and drones before they reached Israeli territory. It was unclear whether Israel’s allies in the Middle East would be willing to work as closely with it this time around.
On Friday, the United States said it had ordered more combat aircraft and warships capable of shooting down missiles and drones to the Middle East in response to the threats from Iran and its allies.
In preparation this week, the Israeli Home Front Command sent search-and-rescue battalions to Haifa, Tel Aviv and other cities in case there are strikes on civilian centers. Residents have been told to stock up on food and water and limit their activities. In northern Israel, near Lebanon, outdoor gatherings are restricted to 30 people, and beaches are closed.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
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