Why the Pirates face an added temptation to shut down Paul Skenes

With their odds of making the MLB playoffs below 1%, the Pittsburgh Pirates could easily justify shutting down their electrifying ace, right-hander Paul Skenes.

This is Skenes’ first full professional season. He has thrown 125 1/3 innings between the majors and minors, nearly as many as he did a year ago between Louisiana State and his brief debut in the Pirates’ system. By ending Skenes’ brilliant rookie campaign, team officials could cite the protection of his long-term health and preservation of him for a potential playoff run in 2025.

They also could operate with a compelling ulterior motive — the possible prevention of Skenes from finishing first or second in the National League rookie of the year voting, an outcome that would deprive him of gaining a full year of service time and keep him in Pittsburgh for at least one additional season.

The Pirates currently have no such plans, according to sources briefed on their thinking. They have no set innings limit for Skenes. The only restriction they are considering, assuming Skenes stays healthy, is potentially shortening his outings. The Chicago White Sox are taking just that approach with left-hander Garrett Crochet, who is working as a starter for the first time in his professional career.

Skenes, 22, did not make his major league debut until May 11, but could automatically earn a full year of service under a rule adopted by the league and players’ union in the 2022 collective bargaining agreement. The rule, designed to discourage teams from manipulating the service time of top young players, rewards the top two finishers in each league’s rookie of the year voting, regardless of how many days they spend in the majors.

For the Pirates, the difference between keeping Skenes for five more years and six would be enormous. As a club that generally operates with a bottom-five payroll, the chances of Pittsburgh signing Skenes to a lucrative extension would be extremely low. The difference for Skenes, too, could be immense. His last year of arbitration could turn into the first year of a free-agent payday, and he would become eligible for the open market after his age-27 season rather than a year later.

Skenes started the All-Star Game two months into his major league career. He might finish first or second for NL rookie of the year even if he does not throw another pitch this season. But the pack chasing him is closing. San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill has emerged as a front-runner. Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio since June 1 has an on-base plus slugging percentage of nearly .900. San Francisco Giants shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald could produce a 20-homer, 20-stolen base season in fewer than 100 games. Then there is Chicago Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, who trails Skenes in earned run average but will finish with considerably more volume, especially if the Pirates elect to aggressively manage Skenes’ innings.

Thus, the temptation for the Pirates to shut down Skenes is not insignificant. A sixth consecutive losing season would sting even more if the Pirates also lost a year of club control over their young ace. Even worse for the Pirates, under another rule adopted in the 2022 agreement, the team would not even receive a draft pick if Skenes won rookie of the year.

For a team to secure the pick, it must include a consensus top-100 prospect on its opening day roster or promote him within the first two weeks, then benefit from the player either winning rookie or the year or finishing top three in the most valuable player or Cy Young Award voting. Three clubs have realized that incentive — the Seattle Mariners with center fielder Julio Rodríguez, the Orioles with shortstop Gunnar Henderson and the Arizona Diamondbacks with outfielder Corbin Carroll.

The incentive, another way of discouraging clubs from engaging in service-time manipulation, was drawn up with prospects like Skenes in mind. But the Pirates called up Skenes too late for him to become eligible. They believed a slow ramp-up would be in his best interests. They also knew, at least for the possibility of securing an extra pick, it might compromise their own.

The risks for teams carrying Rodríguez, Henderson and Carroll on opening day rosters were relatively minimal. All three spent at least two seasons in the minors, becoming fixtures in their organizations. And, as position players, the concerns about their workloads were less pronounced than they were for pitchers.

Skenes’ major league performance — a 2.30 ERA and 32% strikeout rate — vindicated the timing of his promotion. To ruin his chances of a top-two rookie of the year finish, the Pirates probably would have needed to keep him in the minors until at least late June, which would have been a disservice not only to Skenes, but also to the team and the sport.

By not waiting longer, the Pirates cost themselves in another way as well. Skenes almost certainly will earn Super Two status and qualify for an extra year of arbitration. But in the end, they had little choice. Skenes was too good to hold down. And the team, to be sure, derived certain benefits, too.

Skenes elevated the franchise, improving the perception of the Pirates among their fans and within the sport.

Yet under the new rules, the Pirates are the baseball equivalent of a keg tapped at both ends. The team will not get a draft pick for Skenes because of the care it took with him at the start of the season, and could end up with one fewer year of club control because of a vote at the end.

The baseball writers who vote for MLB awards are another constituency grappling with the evolution of their responsibilities under the new rules. Two writers from each AL or NL city vote on the MVP, Cy Young and the rookie and manager awards. The writers expressed concern to the league about rookie of the year votes being linked to service time, but decided the matter was not egregious when 30 voters would determine whether a player gains the full year.

Asked this month about the Pirates potentially lowering pitch counts or giving him more rest between starts, Skenes said, “What they’re thinking and what I’m thinking is pretty well aligned.”

Is there a hard cap on his innings?

“I don’t know exactly what it is,” Skenes said, “but probably.”

Later that day, Cherington said the Pirates had set no such limit for Skenes.

“What’s going to guide us much more is: What’s happening in games? What’s happening between games?” he said. He added: “We’re not going to stop competing. If anybody, position player or pitcher, is in a position where there’s no clear risk to competing, well, then I’m not sure it’s up to me to play God and say he shouldn’t be competing.”

Decisions loom regarding Skenes’ use down the stretch. And the temptation for the Pirates to shut him down involves more than just his health.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

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