Bruised by fresh loss, Canada’s Trudeau shows no sign of stepping down

OTTAWA — Doubts about the leadership of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau intensified after his ruling Liberal Party suffered a second humiliating loss in a special election, but the unpopular leader is determined to cling to office ahead of a looming national vote.

The Liberals, who have governed for almost nine years, suffered a narrow defeat on Monday in a Montreal constituency that had been one of the party’s safest seats. The loss, following a defeat in Toronto in late June, reinforced the perception that Liberal prospects in the next national election are dim.

The mandate for Trudeau’s minority government expires at the end of October 2025, but an early election has become increasingly likely after the smaller New Democratic Party dropped its support. Even so, Trudeau showed no sign on Tuesday that he may step down before the next election campaign. And the party’s mechanisms to force him out are limited.

Andrew McDougall, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto, said the Liberals were losing “the crown jewels” in urban strongholds, not marginal seats, highlighting the party’s bleak prospects. “This is obviously a very difficult moment for Justin Trudeau,” McDougall said. “It seems to reinforce the narrative that he’s yesterday’s man, and that if the Liberals are going to win the next election, they’re going to have to do it with somebody else.”

Although polls indicate the Liberals will lose badly to the official opposition right-of-center Conservatives in the next election amid unhappiness over inflation and a housing crisis, Trudeau and his closest aides say he is going nowhere and has time to help the party recover. “Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win … but there is more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters on Tuesday.

His main immediate challenge is that he has lost control of the House of Commons, where the Liberals hold only a minority of seats. The left-leaning NDP signed a deal in 2022 to keep the Liberals in power but tore up the agreement this month.

The NDP increased its share of the vote in Montreal while retaining a seat in the western province of Manitoba, fending off a strong Conservative challenge. The Liberals face a number of confidence votes by legislators in the next few months and a defeat would trigger an election, although the NDP may choose to keep the government afloat until it can buoy its own popularity.

“The Liberals gave both opposition parties a reason to believe that they can defeat Trudeau,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of polling firm Ipsos-Reid. “The potential they can trigger (an election) sooner is definitely there.” Keeping a minority government alive can be difficult and how much Trudeau can press ahead with his legislative agenda remains unclear.