Which CFP ‘underdogs’ could pull an upset? Ranking Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas and Ohio State

Welcome to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, where up is down, left is right and seed-line favorites are underdogs. In three of the four games, the higher-seeded team is getting points, including No. 1 Oregon against eighth-seeded Ohio State. And in the fourth game, No. 2 Georgia is favored by only 1.5 points against No. 7 Notre Dame. Perhaps the selection committee might want to take another look at its seeding criteria.

As we did before the first round, we’ll examine each game’s chances of ending in an upset. Unlike our work in college basketball (and virtually any other sport), the bizarre bracket setup means we will work off spreads rather than seeding. In other words, Boise State might be the No. 3 seed, but Penn State (-10.5) is the favorite. Once again, we combined data from major rankings systems to formulate an overall chance of an upset.

Fiesta Bowl

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia

Upset Chance: 52.4 percent

As we mentioned, the Bulldogs are the only top-four seed favored by Vegas. But the ranking systems actually prefer the Irish, ever so slightly. Notre Dame’s moneyline (+105 at BetMGM) implies about a 48 percent chance of victory, meaning there’s a bit of an edge in picking the Irish, given the model’s 52 percent chance of a Notre Dame win.

Why the Irish? Well, they’re really good on both sides of the ball. Sharp Football offers advanced metrics called “Beta—Rank,” and Notre Dame rates as the country’s third-best team on offense and defense. (Georgia, by contrast, is eighth on offense and 21st on defense.) Only two teams (Ohio State and Texas) allow fewer points than Notre Dame’s 13.8 per game. In the first round, the Irish held Indiana’s top-10-rated offense to just three points in the game’s first 58 minutes before a pair of garbage-time touchdowns.

Notre Dame’s offense tends to be overlooked, but it is gaining steam — and balance. The Irish gained 193 yards on the ground against the Hoosiers and added another 201 through the air. Riley Leonard continues to grow more comfortable at quarterback, and Jeremiyah Love (7.4 yards per carry) and Jadarian Price (6.8 ypc) are efficient in the running game.

While much of the conversation has centered around how Georgia QB Gunner Stockton will handle Notre Dame’s ferocious defense, the opposite units may decide the game. Which Georgia defense will show up? The one that held Texas to 31 rushing yards in the SEC Championship, or the one that gave up 551 total yards in a loss to Alabama and 27 points in regulation (along with 307 first-half yards) against Georgia Tech? Will Leonard, who has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in eight of 13 games, be able to thrive with increased volume, if necessary? Add it together, and you can see why this game is essentially a tossup.

Rose Bowl

No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State

Upset Chance: 40.5 percent

We’ve got some twists and turns here: The No. 1 team in the country is the underdog. The No. 8 seed in the playoff is probably the best team in the country. And there’s (a bit of) value in betting on the favorite in Ohio State.

For predictive analytics systems, all this was emphatically confirmed by Ohio State’s first-round demolition of Tennessee. Last week, the Buckeyes stepped on the gas, took a three-touchdown lead within 12 minutes, and left the Vols in the dust. And their 42-17 romp was fueled by dominant performances by their biggest stars, not by anything particularly self-destructive on the part of Tennessee (unlike the gifts SMU handed Penn State).

Will Howard, who leads the Big Ten in completion percentage as well as touchdowns, hit 83 percent of his passes for 10.7 yards per attempt. TreVeyon Henderson rushed for 80 yards and two TDs and is now averaging a whopping seven yards per carry for the season. Jeremiah Smith (103 yards, two scores) is up to 1,037 yards and 12 TDs. JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer combined for four sacks, and together, they’ve got 14 sacks, 20 tackles for losses and four forced fumbles. Ohio State’s ginormous win, in other words, was thoroughly supported by its underlying play and a reminder of its depth of outstanding talent.

At this point, it doesn’t take hard math to back up the claim that Oregon, despite sitting atop the polls for the past two months, should be the underdog in this matchup. Ohio State has outscored opponents by 320 points (468 to 148), or 24.6 points per game. Oregon’s margin is 236 points (467 to 231), or 18.2 points per game, against a weaker schedule.

It’s unusual for a power-conference team to go undefeated without establishing itself head-and-shoulders above its closest competitors. When Michigan finished 15-0 last season, or Georgia did the year before, there weren’t many doubts about who the best program in the country was. This time around, the top teams, including the Ducks, are closely packed, and several of the squads with the strongest schedule-adjusted margins of victory have two or even three losses. We can’t tell yet if this is the start of a new trend, possibly driven by conference realignment, or just something that happens every so often (as in 2010 with Auburn or 1990 with Georgia Tech). But as we’ve said, in this year’s field, you’d rather be Texas or Ohio State than Oregon.

Beyond the big picture, while Dillon Gabriel — who leads the nation in passing yards — has led the Ducks’ offense to a terrific season, Ohio State’s defense is playing at an astounding level. The Buckeyes have given up just 11.4 points per game, the fewest in the FBS, allowing only 141.2 passing yards per game (ranking No. 1 in the country) and 101.5 on the ground (No. 7). Gabriel did hit on a couple of bombs in the October prequel to this game — one of three narrow wins the Ducks have managed this year. But since surrendering nearly 500 yards to Oregon, the Buckeyes have blitzed more often, gained more pressure on opposing QBs, mixed new players and coverages into their secondary and given up zero passing TDs.

Opponents are scoring less than a point per drive against Ohio State. Whatever the lunatic fringe might think, the numbers say that’s the key stat here.

Fiesta Bowl

No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Penn State

Upset Chance: 22.8 percent

Oregon. Oregon. Oregon. That’s the refrain Boise State is surely repeating in an effort to explain why they have a chance to beat Penn State. After all, the Broncos took the undefeated Ducks to the wire back in September, grabbing a touchdown lead in the fourth quarter before losing on a last-second field goal. That’s the same Oregon team that just beat Penn State, 45-37, in the Big Ten Championship game.

But that’s a lone data point in a relatively bleak outlook. Boise State ranks 44th in the nation in defense, according to Sharp Football’s Beta—Rank, just behind the likes of Cincinnati, Ohio and Pittsburgh. Now the Broncos have to face Penn State’s sixth-ranked offense, led by Mackey Award-winning TE Tyler Warren, a monster unlike any they’ve faced.

It’ll take an absolutely massive performance from Ashton Jeanty for the Broncos to compete. He delivered against Oregon, rushing 25 times for 192 yards and three touchdowns. But Oregon ranks 26th in the nation in rush defense, according to Sharp Football. Penn State is fourth. So this task is even taller. And it means that Boise will likely need some help from Penn State’s offense. Drew Allar is capable of occasional mistakes — he threw three interceptions against USC and two in the Big Ten championship game. But Boise State has intercepted just seven passes all season despite a less-than-stellar slate of opposing QBs and consistent leading game scripts (forcing opponents to pass more).

Relying on turnovers is a tough bet to make. And so is Boise State.

Peach Bowl

No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Texas

Upset Chance: 20 percent

The Sun Devils ran with the chance the new playoff system gave them. Specifically, Cam Skattebo ran with it: He closed out the regular season by rushing for nearly 500 yards, at a clip of 7.6 yards per carry and with nine total TDs, in three critical wins that clinched the Big 12 conference championship and a first-round bye for Arizona State.

Having said that, there are about 20 teams that would have made for a stronger matchup against Texas. The Sun Devils rank 32nd in the country in scoring offense, and Jordyn Tyson — by far their best receiver — is injured. They’re 28th in defense and awful on special teams (including a combined nine field goals on 17 attempts by three kickers). And with six wins by a touchdown or less, Arizona State has been very fortunate this year, ranking 9th in the country in Team Rankings’ Luck Rankings.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns are extremely strong on both sides of the line of scrimmage. In their first-round win, they gashed Clemson with huge runs again and again; Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner each gained more than 100 yards, snuffing out any hope of a Tigers comeback. On defense, Texas ranks in the FBS top 10 in sacks (41) and TFL (102). Asking Arizona State to hold off Texas in the trenches is a tall order.

This point spread isn’t quite what Washington State faced in the Holiday Bowl after losing 26 players to the transfer portal, but it’s pretty huge for a matchup between two championship contenders. And it looks right on the money.