The National Weather Service is forecasting below-normal activity for the upcoming Central Pacific hurricane season.
During a Tuesday press conference in Honolulu, NWS forecasters predicted one to four tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific basin during hurricane season, which is from June 1 to Nov. 30 in Hawaii.
Tropical cyclones include hurricanes, tropical storms and tropical depressions.
According to NWS, there were four tropical cyclones that entered the Central Pacific Basin, west of 140 degrees longitude, during the 2023 hurricane season.
“El Nino conditions were present,” said Chris Brenchley, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. “So, were were expecting a little more activity. We did get four tropical cyclones entering into the Central Pacific.
“One of those cyclones, Hurricane Dora, went all the way across, from East Pacific to Central Pacific into the West Pacific — which is a pretty rare occurrence.”
Dora was the only hurricane that entered the Central Pacific last year, but even as it moved well south of the islands, it caused damage of historic proportions.
“Hurricane Dora, while hundreds of miles away from Maui, still contributed to the massive Aug. 8, 2023, wildfires in West Maui that claimed 101 lives, destroyed large portions of Lahaina and Kula, and displaced thousands of people and businesses,” said James Barros, Hawaii Emergency Management Agency administrator, reading from a proclamation by Gov. Josh Green declaring this week, through Saturday, as Hurricane Preparedness Week.
“While Hurricane Dora did not directly hit Hawaii, it reminds us that it only takes one storm to change your life, your family and your community,” Barros read, urging everyone statewide to “develop an emergency plan and have two weeks of emergency supplies to ensure the safety of ourselves and our loved ones.”
Dora also impacted the Big Island, although to a much lesser extent than it did the Valley Isle. With a strong low-pressure system to the north of the state, Dora’s winds caused red-flag conditions, and 80 mph-plus wind gusts contributed to fires in West Hawaii that either destroyed or damaged seven structures, according to the Hawaii Fire Department.
And while NWS Honolulu, in partnership with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, is predicting below-average tropical cyclone activity this hurricane season, its forecast appears somewhat similar to one released earlier this month by the commercial forecasting service AccuWeather.
On May 14, the Tribune-Herald published AccuWeather’s hurricane season prediction of one to three tropical cyclones, with zero to two hurricanes entering the Pacific basin.
Both services predicted a relatively rapid change from El Nino conditions — which means warmer-than-normal surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific — to La Nina conditions, which means cooler-than-normal conditions in those waters.
Brenchley predicted La Nina will be “rapidly ramping up to likely mid-to-late summer this season.”
“That implication plays into our hurricane season outlook,” he said. “When we have a La Nina condition, a lot of times, there is additional wind shear generated near the state of Hawaii and over the Central Pacific, which has a detrimental effect on tropical cyclones developing.”
“Due to the La Nina condition, we expect one to four tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific basin this season,” Brenchley added. “There’s not a specific indication as to how many of those cyclones would directly impact Hawaii.
“In 2020, it was a below-normal season, and yet Hurricane Douglas made a very, very close approach to the state. So, it’s important to remember the numbers don’t tell the whole story for the potential for a hurricane threat for Hawaii.”
Brenchley advised residents to “prepare with the real possibility in mind that a hurricane could impact our community.”
“Any actions we take now, however small, can make a difference in how resilient our households and communities will be in the event of a storm.”
Barros revisited a theme he used during a press conference with Green earlier this month about wildfire mitigation, saying the responsibility for the community’s safety in case of a damaging storm is “a kakou thing.”
Kakou is a Hawaiian word meaning “all of us.”
“Preparedness is all of our business,” he said.
Email John Burnett at jburnett@hawaiitribune-herald.com.
