Hurricane Ernesto, packing strong winds and heavy rains, heads toward Bermuda

Ernesto, a Category 2 hurricane, was headed Friday for Bermuda, which was bracing for its powerful winds and saturating rains.

Here are key things to know about the storm.

— Ernesto remains a large and strong Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, according to the U.S. National Weather Service.

— The storm is expected to pass over or near Bermuda on Saturday morning. The possibility of a direct hit isn’t the only concern: If Ernesto’s center passes to the west, it could put the territory in the worst area of the hurricane for an extended period of time. Often the “right” side of an eye wall — in this case the eastern edge — delivers the strongest winds and storm surge.

— President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration in Puerto Rico, where hundreds of thousands of customers served by the island’s utility were left without power when Ernesto moved through this week.

Bermuda was bracing for 6 to 12 inches of rain (and up to 15 inches in some areas), prompting the weather service to warn of the potential for “considerable” life-threatening flooding.

Heavy rain and strong winds arrived on the main island Friday afternoon and were expected to last through Saturday.

The storm has prompted a near-total shutdown of the island’s transportation and emergency services. Ferry services were suspended, and bus services were being halted Friday evening.

L.F. Wade International Airport will close its doors at 8:30 p.m. Friday, with officials indicating it will remain shut through Sunday. Both American Airlines and United Airlines have added flights to accommodate the surge of travelers seeking refuge on the East Coast of the United States.

Michael Weeks, Bermuda’s national security minister, emphasized the urgency of the situation, telling residents: “I urge you to act now. Time is running out.”

Bermuda is well-practiced in dealing with hurricane-force winds, but it has only sustained a direct hit nine times since 1851, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s historical hurricane database. The last storm to make landfall on Bermuda was Paulette on Sept. 14, 2020, knocking down power lines but causing only minimal property damage.

The most memorable Bermuda hurricane of the 21st century didn’t make landfall.

Hurricane Fabian instead passed just to the west of the territory Sept. 5, 2003, killing four sailors and forcing a quarter of Bermuda’s hotels and guesthouses to close for repairs.

While Ernesto is forecast to be slightly weaker than Fabian, it will take a similar track, moving north and passing over or just west of Bermuda, which could push the worst damaging winds and surge onto land.

Ernesto is not expected to approach the mainland United States, but forecasters warned that swells and rip currents were likely to affect the East Coast through the weekend. The New York office of the weather service warned swimmers to stay out of the water. The storm is expected to move off the coast of Canada early next week.

This week, Ernesto brought significant rain to Puerto Rico, where up to 10 inches of rain had fallen in some places by midday Wednesday, the weather service said.

The storm knocked out power to more than 600,000 customers, and many were still waiting for it to be restored. Late Friday, Luma Energy, which distributes electricity in the territory, said that more than 280,000 customers were still without power. Excessive heat warnings were in place for parts of the island, and forecasters warned people to take precautions to stay safe.

This hurricane season is expected to be busy.

Forecasters have warned that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be much more active than usual.

Alberto, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall on the northeastern coast of Mexico as a tropical storm June 20, unleashing heavy rain, flooding and gusty winds. At least four people died in events related to the storm.

Beryl formed a little over a week later, on June 28, and became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record. It carved a path of destruction through the Caribbean before crossing into the Gulf of Mexico and hitting the Texas coast.

This month, NOAA continued its forecast of 17 to 24 named storms this year, an “above-normal” number and a prediction in line with more than a dozen forecasts earlier in the year from experts at universities, private companies and government agencies. Hurricane seasons produce 14 named storms on average from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The seasonal hurricane outlooks were notably aggressive, because forecasters looking at the start of the season saw a combination of circumstances that didn’t exist in records dating to the mid-1800s: record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the potential formation of the weather pattern known as La Nina.

La Nina occurs in the Pacific because of changing ocean temperatures, and it affects weather patterns globally. When it is strong, it typically provides a calm environment in the Atlantic; this allows storms to develop more easily and to strengthen without interference from wind patterns that might otherwise keep them from organizing.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

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