Why grading Byron Murphy’s rookie season with Seahawks isn’t easy

SEATTLE — After Byron Murphy II became the first Seahawk selected in the Mike Macdonald era, general manager John Schneider declared that “we had him graded as the best defensive player in the draft.”

Exactly eight months later, Murphy — a 6-foot, 306-pound defensive tackle — has made a statistically modest impact in Seattle. The DeSoto, Texas, native missed three games (all losses) because of a hamstring injury, otherwise offering 34 tackles, two tackles for loss and 0.5 sacks. That half-sack came in the Seahawks’ second game of the season, more than three months ago.

On Monday morning, Murphy sat in a three-way tie for 14th in DraftKings’ NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds (+6000), despite being drafted behind only Colts defensive end Laiatu Latu. Rams outside linebacker Jared Verse (63 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell (41 tackles, 10 tackles defended) and Dolphins linebacker Chop Robinson (22 tackles, 7 TFL, 6 sacks) are the front-runners for that heralded hardware.

So, is Murphy — the 2023 Big 12 Defensive Lineman of the Year — slogging through a disappointing debut?

He does not see it that way.

“I feel like I’ve been playing pretty good. I feel like I’ve been having a great season,” Murphy said last week, before Seahawks’ 27-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. “I feel like I’ve been doing what’s asked of me. I’ve been doing a good job.”

At his position specifically, statistics can deceive, as an ability to absorb double-teams allows others to gobble up the glory. Still, fellow interior defensive linemen Leonard Williams (54 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, 1 interception) and Jarran Reed (43 tackles, 4 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble) have more effectively stuffed the stat sheet.

You’d love more destructive plays — sacks, tackles for loss, forced fumbles, etc. — from the No. 16 overall pick.

But Macdonald echoed his 22-year-old rookie’s assessment.

“I think Murph’s playing really good football right now,” Macdonald said last week. “I think we’re narrowing down what his sweet spot is in terms of what we’re asking him to do on a week to week basis, but this guy prepares really hard — not like a rookie. He’s kind of like a vet. He’s been doing that since he walked in the door, and he’s playing really physical, decisive.

“But to take his game to the next level, we’d like to get him some more pass-rush opportunities. It’s easier said than done, because those are going to come from guys that are also playing well. So when those things come, take advantage of them, just like he is. But I think he’s pushing the pocket really well.”

On Sunday, Murphy pushed the pocket.

Then he paid the price.

Trailing 24-20 with 4:03 left, Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold took a shotgun snap and was enveloped by Murphy and defensive end Dre’Mont Jones for an eight-yard sack. But the referees ruled that Murphy had caught Darnold’s face mask while dragging him to the turf, and Minnesota struck for the fatal 39-yard touchdown on the next play.

“The guy’s fighting his tail off to get to the quarterback,” Macdonald said of Murphy’s effort that preceded the penalty. “Those are the inches [between winning and losing] we’re talking about. We could have had a third-and-18 with two downs to go to try and seal it, and all of a sudden two plays later we’re down three. That’s how close we are. But we’re not there yet, obviously.”

Those are also the inches between a banner rookie season, and a more unsatisfying result.

Still, Murphy’s ability remains exceedingly obvious, even if his statistics have yet to follow suit. The explosiveness, the low center of gravity, the 300-plus pounds of twitch and fury, the motor — it’s all still there. This is not a mirage of impressive measurables, a missed draft pick or a soon-to-be bust.

It’s a volcano that’s begun to bubble but has yet to actually erupt.

“It could be a bit frustrating. But for me it’s not, because I know I’m helping free other teammates around me,” Murphy said of the absence of individual results. “Everybody else gets opportunities to make plays, and that’s all that matters. It’s a team, and I’m all for the team. As long as we get the win and play good, execute, that’s all that matters to me.”

So, what of the Seahawks’ collective success? Through 15 games, they sit 13th in the NFL in scoring defense (22.7 points allowed per game), 17th in total defense, 17th in sacks (35), 18th in rushing defense (124.4 yards allowed per game), 22nd in opponent yards per carry (4.6) and 27th in tackles for loss (63). At 8-7, Seattle must record road wins against the Bears and Rams to keep its fading playoff hopes from perishing.

(If you were wondering, the 4-11 Bears have surrendered 60 sacks, fewer only than the Browns’ 63.)

As a player, and as a team, the results have been decidedly mixed.

These are the inches between a division title and a postseason snub.

But regarding the rookie: don’t form concrete conclusions from a face-mask penalty or a slow statistical start. It’ll take more than a game, or play, or season, to determine if Murphy really is the best defensive player in the draft.