US-backed ceasefire offer poses dilemma for Putin

BERLIN — As recently as January, President Vladimir Putin of Russia emphatically rejected the idea of a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine.

But after a month in which President Donald Trump turned U.S. foreign policy on its head and Russian forces made progress in a key battle, the Kremlin now appears keen at least to entertain the 30-day ceasefire proposal made by Ukraine and the United States on Tuesday.

Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, told reporters Wednesday that the Kremlin was “carefully studying” the outcome of Tuesday’s talks between the United States and Ukraine, and their call for a monthlong ceasefire.

He said he expected the United States to inform Russia in the coming days of “the details of the negotiations that took place and the understandings that were reached.” He raised the possibility of another phone call between Putin and Trump, signaling that the Kremlin saw the ceasefire proposal as just a part of a broader flurry of diplomacy.

Putin has seen a dizzying reversal in his geopolitical fortunes over the last month as Trump realigned U.S. foreign policy in Russia’s favor, antagonized U.S. allies and excoriated President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine at the White House.

But the emergence of a joint ceasefire proposal from the United States and Ukraine complicates things for Putin. It deepens the tension between his desires for a far-reaching victory in Ukraine and for close ties with Trump.

While Trump says he wants to end the war as soon as possible, Putin has signaled he will not stop fighting until he extracts major concessions from the West and from Ukraine, including a pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO and that the alliance will reduce its presence in Central and Eastern Europe.

On Jan. 20, when he congratulated Trump on his inauguration, Putin made clear that the goal of any Ukraine talks must “not be a short ceasefire, not some kind of respite.” Russia, he said, sought “a long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people, all nations who live in this region.”

Analysts say Putin’s opposition to a temporary ceasefire stemmed from the simple calculation that with Russian forces gaining on the battlefield, Moscow would only give up its leverage by stopping the fighting without winning concessions.

But a Feb. 12 phone call between Putin and Trump, and the White House’s subsequent alignment with Russia at the United Nations and elsewhere, may have affected Putin’s calculus by making him more eager to stay on Trump’s good side, analysts say.

That sets up a delicate balancing act for the Kremlin.

Ilya Grashchenkov, a political analyst in Moscow, said the Kremlin could be tempted to accept a truce that would be “tactically unfavorable but strategically favorable” in order to “show that it’s a peacemaker.”

While Russians were not present at Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration has kept up its engagement with the Kremlin. CIA Director John Ratcliffe spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, on Tuesday, Russian news agencies reported Wednesday.

Steve Witkoff, the envoy for Trump who met with Putin for several hours last month, plans to return to Russia in the coming days, according to two people familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity to discuss internal plans. On Tuesday afternoon, Trump told reporters that he thought he would speak with Putin this week and that he hoped a lasting ceasefire would be negotiated in the coming days.

“It certainly is not impossible that the Russians would accept this,” Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst at the RAND Corp., said of the 30-day offer. “Not because they want an unconditional, temporary ceasefire, but because they now have a stake in relations with Washington.”

In another sign of Moscow’s charm offensive directed at the Trump camp, Russia’s Foreign Ministry released a 90-minute interview Wednesday that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave to three American video bloggers, including former Fox News personality Andrew Napolitano.

Lavrov, speaking English, praised the Trump administration for reversing the Democrats’ “departure from Christian values” and said Russia was ready for the “normal relations” that the United States was offering.

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